J. Meteor. Res.
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2018 Vol. 32, No. 6
Published: 2018-12-28

The CAMS Climate System Model and a Basic Evaluation of Its Climatology and Climate Variability Simulation
Xinyao RONG, Jian LI, Haoming CHEN, Yufei XIN, Jingzhi SU, Lijuan HUA, Tianjun ZHOU, Yanjun QI, Zhengqiu ZHANG, Guo ZHANG, Jianduo LI
2018, 32(6): 839-861 [Abstract]( 133 ) HTML PDF (4515 KB)  ( 160 Supplemental Material
Abstract:A new coupled climate system model (CSM) has been developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) by employing several state-of-the-art component models. The coupled CAMS-CSM consists of the modified atmospheric model [ECmwf-HAMburg (ECHAM5)], ocean model [Modular Ocean Model (MOM4)], sea ice model [Sea Ice Simulator (SIS)], and land surface model [Common Land Model (CoLM)]. A detailed model description is presented and both the pre-industrial and “historical” simulations are preliminarily evaluated in this study. The model can reproduce the climatological mean states and seasonal cycles of the major climate system quantities, including the sea surface temperature, precipitation, sea ice extent, and the equatorial thermocline. The major climate variability modes are also reasonably captured by the CAMS-CSM, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The model shows a promising ability to simulate the EASM variability and the ENSO-EASM relationship. Some biases still exist, such as the false double-intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the annual mean precipitation field, the overestimated ENSO amplitude, and the weakened Bjerknes feedback associated with ENSO; and thus the CAMS-CSM needs further improvements.
An Assessment of CAMS-CSM in Simulating Land-Atmosphere Heat and Water Exchanges
Guo ZHANG, Jianduo LI, Xinyao RONG, Yufei XIN, Jian LI, Haoming CHEN, Jingzhi SU, Lijuan HUA
2018, 32(6): 862-880 [Abstract]( 74 ) HTML PDF (9403 KB)  ( 120 Supplemental Material
Abstract:The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) has been devoted to developing a climate system mo-del (CSM) to meet demand for climate simulation and prediction for the East Asian region. In this study, we evaluated the performance of CAMS-CSM in regard to sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE), surface temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth, focusing on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiment, with the aim of participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. We systematically assessed the simulation results achieved by CAMS-CSM for these variables against various reference products and ground observations, including the FLUXNET model tree ensembles H and LE data, Climate Prediction Center soil moisture data, snow depth climatology data, and Chinese ground observations of snow depth and winter surface temperature. We compared these results with data from the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Our results indicated that CAMS-CSM simulations were better than or comparable to ERA-Interim reanalysis for snow depth and winter surface temperature at regional scales, but slightly worse when simulating total column soil moisture. The root-mean-square differences of H in CAMS-CSM were all greater than those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, but less than or comparable to those from GLDAS. The spatial correlations for H in CAMS-CSM were the lowest in nearly all regions, except for North America. CAMS-CSM LE produced the lowest bias in Siberia, North America, and South America, but with the lowest spatial correlation coefficients. Therefore, there are still scopes for improving H and LE simulations in CAMS-CSM, particularly for LE.
Arctic Climate Changes Based on Historical Simulations (1900-2013) with the CAMS-CSM
Ting WEI, Jian LI, Xinyao RONG, Wenjie DONG, Bingyi WU, Minghu DING
2018, 32(6): 881-895 [Abstract]( 69 ) HTML PDF (4475 KB)  ( 129 Supplemental Material
Abstract:The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model (CAMS-CSM) is a newly developed global climate model that will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. Based on historical simulations (1900-2013), we evaluate the model performance in simulating the observed characteristics of the Arctic climate system, which includes air temperature, precipitation, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), ocean temperature/salinity, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), snow cover, and sea ice. The model-data comparisons indicate that the CAMS-CSM reproduces spatial patterns of climatological mean air temperature over the Arctic (60°-90°N) and a rapid warming trend from 1979 to 2013. However, the warming trend is overestimated south of the Arctic Circle, implying a subdued Arctic amplification. The distribution of climatological precipitation in the Arctic is broadly captured in the model, whereas it shows limited skills in depicting the overall increasing trend. The AO can be reproduced by the CAMS-CSM in terms of reasonable patterns and variability. Regarding the ocean simulation, the model underestimates the AMOC and zonally averaged ocean temperatures and salinity above a depth of 500 m, and it fails to reproduce the observed increasing trend in the upper ocean heat content in the Arctic. The large-scale distribution of the snow cover extent (SCE) in the Northern Hemisphere and the overall decreasing trend in the spring SCE are captured by the CAMS-CSM, while the biased magnitudes exist. Due to the underestimation of the AMOC and the poor quantification of air-sea interaction, the CAMS-CSM overestimates regional sea ice and underestimates the observed decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice area in September. Overall, the CAMS-CSM reproduces a climatological distribution of the Arctic climate system and general trends from 1979 to 2013 compared with the observations, but it shows limited skills in modeling local trends and interannual variability.
Impacts of Land-Use Data on the Simulation of Surface Air Temperature in Northwest China
Yaohui LI, Cailing ZHAO, Tiejun ZHANG, Wei WANG, Haixia DUAN, Yuanpu LIU, Yulong REN, Zhaoxia PU
2018, 32(6): 896-908 [Abstract]( 55 ) HTML PDF (5153 KB)  ( 67 Supplemental Material
Abstract:This study examines the impacts of land-use data on the simulation of surface air temperature in Northwest China by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) land-use data with 500-m spatial resolution are generated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products. These data are used to replace the default U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) land-use data in the WRF model. Based on the data recorded by national basic meteorological observing stations in Northwest China, results are compared and evaluated. It is found that replacing the default USGS land-use data in the WRF model with the IGBP data improves the ability of the model to simulate surface air temperature in Northwest China in July and December 2015. Errors in the simulated daytime surface air temperature are reduced, while the results vary between seasons. There is some variation in the degree and range of impacts of land-use data on surface air temperature among seasons. Using the IGBP data, the simulated daytime surface air temperature in July 2015 improves at a relatively small number of stations, but to a relatively large degree; whereas the simulation of daytime surface air temperature in December 2015 improves at almost all stations, but only to a relatively small degree (within 1℃). Mitigation of daytime surface air temperature overestimation in July 2015 is influenced mainly by the change in ground heat flux. The modification of underestimated temperature comes mainly from the improvement of simulated net radiation in December 2015.
Modeling Study of Foehn Wind Events in Antarctic Peninsula with WRF Forced by CCSM
Chongran ZHANG, Jing ZHANG
2018, 32(6): 909-922 [Abstract]( 91 ) HTML PDF (7300 KB)  ( 75 Supplemental Material
Abstract:Significant changes have occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) including warmer temperatures, accelerated melting of glaciers, and breakup of ice shelves. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) forced by the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM) simulations to study foehn wind warming in AP. Wea-ther systems responsible for generating the foehn events are two cyclonic systems that move toward and/or cross over AP. WRF simulates the movement of cyclonic systems and the resulting foehn wind warming that is absent in CCSM. It is found that the warming extent along a transect across the central AP toward Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) varies during the simulation period and the maximum warming moves from near the base of leeward slopes to over 40 km away extending toward the attached LCIS. Our analysis suggests that the foehn wind warming is negatively correlated with the incoming air temperature and the mountain top temperature during periods without significant precipitation, in which isentropic drawdown is the dominant heating mechanism. On the other hand, when significant precipitation occurs along the windward side of AP, latent heating is the major heating mechanism evidenced by positive relations between the foehn wind warming and 1) incoming air temperature, 2) windward precipitation, and 3) latent heating. Foehn wind warming caused by isentropic drawdown also tends to be stronger than that caused by latent heating. Comparison of WRF simulations forced by original and corrected CCSM data indicates that foehn wind warming is stronger in the original CCSM forced simulation when no significant windward precipitation is present. The foehn wind warming becomes weaker in both simulations when there is significant windward precipitation. This suggests that model’s ability to resolve the foehn warming varies with the forcing data, but the precipitation impact on the leeward warming is consistent.
Identification Standard for ENSO Events and Its Application to Climate Monitoring and Prediction in China
Hong-Li REN, Bo LU, Jianghua WAN, Ben TIAN, Peiqun ZHANG
2018, 32(6): 923-936 [Abstract]( 64 ) HTML PDF (5122 KB)  ( 55 Supplemental Material
Abstract:The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reflects anomalous variations in the sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation over the tropical central-eastern Pacific. It remarkably impacts on weather and climate worldwide, so monitoring and prediction of ENSO draw intensive research. However, there is not yet a unique standard internationally for identifying the timing, intensity, and type of ENSO events. The National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration (NCC/CMA) has led the effort to establish a national identification standard of ENSO events, which was officially endorsed by the National Standardization Administration of China and implemented operationally in NCC/CMA in 2017. In this paper, two key aspects of this standard are introduced. First, the Niño3.4 SST anomaly index, which is well-recognized in the international ENSO research community and used operationally in the US, has replaced the previous Niño Z index and been used to identify the start, end, and peak times, and intensity of ENSO events. Second, two new indices—the eastern Pacific ENSO (EP) index and the central Pacific ENSO (CP) index, based on the SST conditions in Niño3 and Niño4 region respectively, are calculated to first determine the ENSO type before monitoring and assessing the impacts of ENSO on China’s climate. With this standard, all historical ENSO events since 1950 are consistently re-identified; their distinct properties are diagnosed and presented; and the impacts of ENSO events under different types on China’s climate are re-assessed. This standard is also employed to validate the intensity, grade, and type of the ENSO events predicted by the NCC/CMA operational ENSO prediction system. The new standard and the thus derived unified set of re-analyzed historical ENSO events and associated information provide a good reference for better monitoring and prediction of future ENSO events.
Construction and Application of a Climate Risk Index for China
Yujie WANG, Lianchun SONG, Dianxiu YE, Zhe WANG, Rong GAO, Xiucang LI, Yizhou YIN, Zunya WANG, Yaoming LIAO
2018, 32(6): 937-949 [Abstract]( 59 ) HTML PDF (1519 KB)  ( 97 Supplemental Material
Abstract:In the context of global warming, China is facing with increasing climate risks. It is imperative to develop quantitative indices to reflect the climate risks caused by extreme weather/climate events and adverse climatic conditions in association with different industries. Based on the observations at 2288 meteorological stations in China and the meteorological disasters data, a set of indices are developed to measure climate risks due to water-logging, drought, high temperature, cryogenic freezing, and typhoon. A statistical method is then used to construct an overall climate risk index (CRI) for China from these individual indices. There is a good correspondence between these indices and historical climatic conditions. The CRI, the index of water-logging by rain, and the high temperature index increase at a rate of 0.28, 0.37, and 0.65 per decade, respectively, from 1961 to 2016. The cryogenic freezing index is closely related to changes in the consumer price index for food. The high temperature index is correlated with the consumption of energy and electricity. The correlation between the yearly growth in claims on household property insurance and the sum of the water-logging index and the typhoon index in the same year is as high as 0.70. Both the growth rate of claims on agricultural insurance and the annual growth rate of hospital inpatients are positively correlated with the CRI. The year-on-year growth in the number of domestic tourists is significantly negatively correlated with the CRI in the same year. More efforts are needed to develop regional CRIs.
Multiple Equilibria in a Land-Atmosphere Coupled System
Dongdong LI, Yongli HE, Jianping HUANG, Lu BI, Lei DING
2018, 32(6): 950-973 [Abstract]( 120 ) HTML PDF (1914 KB)  ( 84 Supplemental Material
Abstract:Many low-order modeling studies indicate that there may be multiple equilibria in the atmosphere induced by thermal and topographic forcings. However, most work uses uncoupled atmospheric model and just focuses on the multiple equilibria with distinct wave amplitude, i.e., the high- and low-index equilibria. Here, a low-order coupled land-atmosphere model is used to study the multiple equilibria with both distinct wave phase and wave amplitude. The model combines a two-layer quasi-geostrophic channel model and an energy balance model. Highly truncated spectral expansions are used and the results show that there may be two stable equilibria with distinct wave phase relative to the topography: one (the other) has a lower layer streamfunction that is nearly in (out of) phase with the topography, i.e., the lower layer ridges (troughs) are over the mountains, called ridge-type (trough-type) equilibria. The wave phase of equilibrium state depends on the direction of lower layer zonal wind and horizontal scale of the topography. The multiple wave phase equilibria associated with ridge- and trough-types originate from the orographic instability of the Hadley circulation, which is a pitch-fork bifurcation. Compared with the uncoupled model, the land-atmosphere coupled system produces more stable atmospheric flow and more ridge-type equilibrium states, particularly, these effects are primarily attributed to the longwave radiation fluxes. The upper layer streamfunctions of both ridge- and trough-type equilibria are also characterized by either a high- or low-index flow pattern. However, the multiple wave phase equilibria associated with ridge- and trough-types are more prominent than multiple wave amplitude equilibria associated with high- and low-index types in this study.
Conjugate Gradient Algorithm in the Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System in GRAPES
Yongzhu LIU, Lin ZHANG, Zhihua LIAN
2018, 32(6): 974-984 [Abstract]( 43 ) HTML PDF (759 KB)  ( 62 Supplemental Material
Abstract:Minimization algorithms are singular components in four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar). In this paper, the convergence and application of the conjugate gradient algorithm (CGA), which is based on the Lanczos iterative algorithm and the Hessian matrix derived from tangent linear and adjoint models using a non-hydrostatic framework, are investigated in the 4DVar minimization. First, the influence of the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization of the Lanczos vector on the convergence of the Lanczos algorithm is studied. The results show that the Lanczos algorithm without orthogonalization fails to converge after the ninth iteration in the 4DVar minimization, while the orthogonalized Lanczos algorithm converges stably. Second, the convergence and computational efficiency of the CGA and quasi-Newton method in batch cycling assimilation experiments are compared on the 4DVar platform of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The CGA is 40% more computationally efficient than the quasi-Newton method, although the equivalent analysis results can be obtained by using either the CGA or the quasi-Newton method. Thus, the CGA based on Lanczos iterations is better for solving the optimization problems in the GRAPES 4DVar system.
Classification and Diurnal Variations of Precipitation Echoes Observed by a C-band Vertically-Pointing Radar in Central Tibetan Plateau during TIPEX-Ⅲ 2014-IOP
Ruoyun MA, Yali LUO, Hui WANG
2018, 32(6): 985-1001 [Abstract]( 80 ) HTML PDF (4590 KB)  ( 115 Supplemental Material
Abstract:This study investigates classification and diurnal variations of the precipitation echoes over the central Tibetan Plateau based on the observations collected from a C-band vertically-pointing frequency-modulated continuous-wave (C-FMCW) radar during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment (TIPEX-Ⅲ) 2014-Intensive Observation Period (2014-IOP). The results show that 51.32% of the vertical profiles have valid echoes with reflectivity > -10 dBZ, and 35.06% of the valid echo profiles produce precipitation at the ground (precipitation profiles); stratiform precipitation with an evident bright-band signature, weak convective precipitation, and strong convective precipitation account for 52.03%, 42.98%, and 4.99% of the precipitation profiles, respectively. About 59.84% of the precipitation occurs in the afternoon to midnight, while 40.16% of the precipitation with weaker intensity is observed in the nocturnal hours and in the morning. Diurnal variation of occurrence frequency of precipitation shows a major peak during 2100-2200 LST (local solar time) with 59.02% being the stratiform precipitation; the secondary peak appears during 1300-1400 LST with 59.71% being the weak convective precipitation; the strong convective precipitation occurs mostly (81.83%) in the afternoon and evening with two peaks over 1200-1300 and 1700-1800 LST, respectively. Starting from approximately 1100 LST, precipitation echoes develop with enhanced vertical air motion, elevated echo top, and increasing radar reflectivity. Intense upward air motion occurs most frequently in 1700-1800 LST with a secondary peak in 1100-1400 LST, while the tops of precipitation echoes and intense upward air motion reach their highest levels during 1600-1800 LST. The atmospheric conditions in the early morning are disadvantageous for convective initiation and development. Around noon, the convective available potential energy (CAPE) increases markedly, convective inhibition (CIN) is generally small, and a super-dry-adiabatic layer is present near the surface (0-400 m). In the early evening, some larger values of CAPE, level of neutral buoyancy, and total precipitable water are present, suggesting more favorable thermodynamic and water vapor conditions.
Drivers of the Severity of the Extreme Hot Summer of 2015 in Western China
Wei CHEN, Buwen DONG
2018, 32(6): 1002-1010 [Abstract]( 100 ) HTML PDF (1057 KB)  ( 80 Supplemental Material
Abstract:Western China experienced an extreme hot summer in 2015, breaking a number of temperature records. The summer mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly was twice the interannual variability. The hottest daytime temperature (TXx) and warmest night-time temperature (TNx) were the highest in China since 1964. This extreme hot summer occurred in the context of steadily increasing temperatures in recent decades. We carried out a set of experiments to evaluate the extent to which the changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE) and anthropogenic forcing drove the severity of the extreme summer of 2015 in western China. Our results indicate that about 65%-72% of the observed changes in the seasonal mean SAT and the daily maximum (Tmax) and daily minimum (Tmin) temperatures over western China resulted from changes in boundary forcings, including the SST/SIE and anthropogenic forcing. For the relative role of individual forcing, the direct impact of changes in anthropogenic forcing explain about 42% of the SAT warming and 60% (40%) of the increase in TNx and Tmin (TXx and Tmax) in the model response. The changes in SST/SIE contributed to the remaining surface warming and the increase in hot extremes, which are mainly the result of changes in the SST over the Pacific Ocean, where a super El Niño event occurred. Our study indicates a prominent role for the direct impact of anthropogenic forcing in the severity of the extreme hot summer in western China in 2015, although the changes in SST/SIE, as well as the internal variability of the atmosphere, also made a contribution.
Performance of WRF Large Eddy Simulations in Modeling the Convective Boundary Layer over the Taklimakan Desert, China
Hongxiong XU, Minzhong WANG, Yinjun WANG, Wenyue CAI
2018, 32(6): 1011-1025 [Abstract]( 56 ) HTML PDF (11388 KB)  ( 50 Supplemental Material
Abstract:The maximum height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) over the Taklimakan Desert can exceed 5000 m during summer and plays a crucial role in the regional circulation and weather. We combined the Weather Research and Forecasting Large Eddy Simulation (WRF-LES) with data from Global Positioning System (GPS) radiosondes and from eddy covariance stations to evaluate the performance of the WRF-LES in simulating the characteristics of the deep CBL over the central Taklimakan Desert. The model reproduced the evolution of the CBL processes reasonably well, but the simulations generated warmer and moister conditions than the observation as a result of the over-prediction of surface fluxes and large-scale advection. Further simulations were performed with multiple configurations and sensitivity tests. The sensitivity tests for the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) showed that the model results are sensitive to changes in the time resolution and domain size of the specified LBCs. A larger domain size varies the distance of the area of interest from the LBCs and reduces the influence of large forecast errors near the LBCs. Comparing the model results using the original parameterization of sensible heat flux with the Noah land surface scheme and those of the sensitivity experiments showed that the desert CBL is sensitive to the sensible heat flux produced by the land surface scheme during daytime in summer. A reduction in the sensible heat flux can correct overestimates of the potential temperature profile. However, increasing the sensible heat flux significantly reduces the total time needed to increase the CBL to a relatively low altitude (< 3 km) in the middle and initial stages of the development of the CBL rather than producing a higher CBL in the later stages.
Evaluation of the CAM and PX Surface Layer Parameterization Schemes for Momentum and Sensible Heat Fluxes Using Observations
Youshan JIANG, Dongqing LIU, Gang LIU
2018, 32(6): 1026-1040 [Abstract]( 73 ) HTML PDF (2905 KB)  ( 62 Supplemental Material
Abstract:In this study, the performances of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and Pleim-Xiu (PX) surface layer parameterization schemes are investigated by using field observations. The parameterization schemes are evaluated against continuous momentum and sensible heat flux observations measured at two flat and homogeneous grassland sites in the suburb of Nanjing, eastern China. The observations were conducted from 30 December 2014 to 18 April 2017 at Jiangxinzhou and from 9 February 2015 to 26 March 2018 at Jiangning. It is found that the momentum flux is overall in good agreement with the observation, and the sensible heat flux is overestimated. The parameterizations of the momentum and sensible heat fluxes well capture the diurnal and seasonal patterns seen in the observations at the two sites. At Jiangxinzhou, the PX parameterization underestimates the momentum flux throughout the day and the CAM parameterization slightly overestimates it around the noon, while they underestimate the momentum flux throughout the year. The two parameterizations overestimate the sensible heat flux in the daytime as well as over the entire year. At Jiangning, the two parameterizations overestimate the momentum flux throughout the day and the sensible heat flux in the daytime, and overestimate both of them over the entire year. The two parameterizations are not significantly different from each other in reproducing the turbulent fluxes at the same site, while they perform differently at the two sites in terms of statistics. In addition, the parameterized fluxes increase with increased roughness length.
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