端义宏,方娟,程正泉,徐晶,李青青,占瑞芬,钱传海,陈静,任福民. 2020. 热带气旋研究和业务预报进展—第九届世界气象组织热带气旋国际研讨会(IWTC-9)综述[J]. 气象学报, 78(3):537-550, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.050
热带气旋研究和业务预报进展—第九届世界气象组织热带气旋国际研讨会(IWTC-9)综述
Advances and trends in tropical cyclone research and forecasting:An overview of the ninth World Meteorological Organization International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9)
投稿时间:2019-09-17  修订日期:2020-04-23
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.050
中文关键词:  热带气旋  研究进展  预报预警  综述
英文关键词:Tropical cyclone  Advances in research  Forecast and warming  Overview
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2015CB452800)
作者单位
端义宏 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081 
方娟 南京大学大气科学系中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室南京210093 
程正泉 广州市中心气象台广州510080 
徐晶 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081 
李青青 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院南京210044 
占瑞芬 复旦大学大气科学研究院上海200438 
钱传海 国家气象中心北京100081 
陈静 中国气象局数值预报中心北京100081 
任福民 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081 
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中文摘要:
      2018年12月3—7日在美国夏威夷召开的第九届世界气象组织热带气旋国际研讨会对国际热带气旋研究和预报预警业务的近期进展进行了充分回顾,并对未来的发展方向进行了系统研讨。过去4年(2015—2018年),在热带波动和对流对热带气旋生成的影响、复杂环境影响热带气旋路径转向的机理、对流和风垂直切变对热带气旋强度变化的作用机制、双眼墙形成和替换机理、热带气旋变性过程对环境条件的响应、热带气旋气候变化特征、热带气旋多平台观测技术等诸多方面的研究取得了显著进展。同时,在热带气旋生成概率预报、全球模式中热带气旋强度预报改进、热带气旋活动次季节业务预测技术发展以及热带气旋预报不确定性理论等方面也取得积极进展。在综述此次会议的相关议题后,简要讨论中国热带气旋研究和业务发展方向。
英文摘要:
      The ninth World Meteorological Organization International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) was held in Hawaii, the U. S., in December 2018. Recent global advances in tropical cyclone research and forecasting and warning operations were thoroughly reviewed, and a corresponding outlook was illustrated in this workshop. In the past four years (2015—2018), significant progress has been made in research on the effects of tropical waves and convection on tropical cyclogenesis, complex environments influencing tropical cyclone recurvature, the mechanisms of convection and vertical wind shear for tropical cyclone intensity changes, the mechanisms of concentric eyewall formation and replacement, the response of extratropical transition to environmental conditions, the characteristics of tropical cyclone climate change, and multi-platform observation techniques for tropical cyclones. In addition, there have been promising developments in the probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclone formation, the improvement of tropical cyclone intensity forecasting in global models, operational forecasting techniques for sub-seasonal tropical cyclone activity and the theory of tropical cyclone forecasting uncertainty. The outcomes of IWTC-9 will be reviewed here, and the direction of tropical cyclone research and operational development in China will be discussed as well.
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