庄照荣,李兴良. 2021. 尺度叠加的高斯相关 模型在GRAPES-RAFS中的应用[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2021.005
尺度叠加的高斯相关 模型在GRAPES-RAFS中的应用
The Application of Superposition of Gaussian Components in GRAPES-RAFS
投稿时间:2020-04-27  修订日期:2020-07-22
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2021.005
中文关键词:  水平相关模型,高斯函数,尺度叠加的高斯函数,三维变分,GRAPES-RAFS
英文关键词:Horizontal correlation model, Gaussian function, Superposition of gaussian components, 3DVar,GRAPES-RAFS
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
庄照荣 国家气象中心 zhuangzr@126.com 
李兴良 国家气象中心 lixliang@139.com 
摘要点击次数: 75
全文下载次数: 47
中文摘要:
      背景误差水平相关模型决定着观测对分析增量结构的影响,同时也决定着不同尺度上分析增量信息的多少。本文采用NMC方法统计各变量背景误差水平相关系数的结构特征,依据统计的背景误差特征,改进背景误差水平相关模型。文中改进的尺度叠加高斯相关模型不仅能增加分析变量的中小尺度信息,同时尺度叠加高斯函数描述的风场背景误差相关特征更符合实际统计结构,缓解了原高斯函数方案中风场负相关偏大的问题。通过对比原高斯相关模型及改进的尺度叠加高斯相关模型的GRAPES-RAFS快速分析预报循环批量试验表明:改进的尺度叠加高斯相关模型加快了分析目标泛函收敛的程度,增加了分析变量的中小尺度功率谱,因而分析增量包含更多的中小尺度信息。尺度叠加的高斯相关模型的应用大幅度提高分析质量,特别是风场分析,同时12h内风场预报质量也略有提高,也显著提高了前24h各量级降水的ETS评分,明显缓解了原高斯模型方案的空报现象。
英文摘要:
      The background error horizontal correlation model decides the structure of analysis increments affected by observations, and the analysis increments information changed with different scales in spectral space. The structures of background error horizontal correlations are estimated by NMC method and correlation model is improved according to statistical results. The application of superposition of Gaussian components (SupG) correlation model can not only increase the meso and small-scale information of analysis increments, but also mitigate the inappropriate big negative correlation because the correlation structures of wind with SupG is more closer the actual weather. The analysis and forecast qualities between the control experiments (Guassion function model)and SupG experiments run with GRAPES-RAFS system are compared. The numerical results indicate that the convergence of objective function is accelerated, and meso and small-scale power spectrum of analysis increments are increased so there are more meso and small-scale information in analysis increments. The analysis qualities are obviously improved especially wind analysis. Meanwhile the forecast qualities of 12h wind are improved too. In addition, precipitation scores of ETS with SupG experiments are higher than that of control experiments.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
分享按钮