|周天军,陈梓明,邹立维,陈晓龙,俞永强,王斌,包庆,鲍颖,曹剑,何编,胡帅,李立娟,李建,林岩銮,马利斌,乔方利,容新尧,宋振亚,唐彦丽,吴波,吴统文,辛晓歌,张贺,张明华. 2020. 中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估[J]. 气象学报, 78(3):332-350, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.029
| The Earth-climate system model (ECSM) is an important platform for multi-disciplinary and multi-sphere integration research, and its development is at the frontier of international geosciences, especially in the field of global change study. The research and development (R&D) of ECSM in China began in the 1980s and great progress has been achieved in the past 10 years. In China, ECSMs are now mainly developed at the Chinese Academy of Sciences ,various ministries and universities; thus, a tripartite situation has formed regarding the model development. Following a brief review of the development history of ECSMs in China, this paper summarizes the technical characteristics of the nine Chinese ECSMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and preliminarily assesses the basic performances of four Chinese models in global climate simulation and climate simulation in East Asia. The projected changes in global precipitation and temperature and associated relationship with the equilibrium climate sensitivity under four shared socioeconomic path scenarios are also discussed. Finally, combined with the international situation and from the perspective of model development, eight directions are proposed for the future development of Chinese ECSMs.