姜大膀,司东,郎咸梅. 2020. 大样本初始化十年际预测试验(CESM-DPLE)对东亚夏季气候预测的评估[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.033
大样本初始化十年际预测试验(CESM-DPLE)对东亚夏季气候预测的评估
Evaluation of Summer Climate Prediction over East Asia by Large Ensemble CESM Initialized Decadal Prediction (CESM-DPLE) Project
投稿时间:2020-02-21  修订日期:2020-02-21
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.033
中文关键词:  大样本初始化十年际预测试验,气候预测,东亚夏季气候,十年际变化
英文关键词:CESM-DPLE, Climate prediction, East Asian summer climate, Decadal variation
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
姜大膀 中国科学院大气物理研究所 jiangdb@mail.iap.ac.cn 
司东 中国科学院大气物理研究所 sidong@mail.iap.ac.cn 
郎咸梅 中国科学院大气物理研究所 langxm@mail.iap.ac.cn 
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中文摘要:
      [资料和方法]基于气温和降水观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料,[目的]系统评估了大样本初始化十年际预测试验CESM-DPLE对1959–2016年东亚夏季气候预测的能力。[结果]结果表明,CESM-DPLE能较好地模拟东亚夏季气候以及相关主要大气环流系统的基本态特征,在年际尺度上对东亚气温有很高的预测技巧但对降水几乎没有能力。CESM-DPLE再现了北大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)经由激发遥相关波列所引起的中高纬大气环流、东亚夏季风和气候的异常。20世纪90年代末之后,AMO由冷位相转为暖位相,遥相关波列位相调整,东亚受异常低压控制,东亚夏季风偏强,夏季气温偏高、降水偏多。[结论]总体上,尽管还存在着不足,CESM-DPLE对东亚夏季温度年际变化以及与20世纪90年代末AMO位相转变相联的东亚夏季气候年代际变化具备一定的预测能力,是目前研究和预测东亚气候变化的一套较好试验数据。
英文摘要:
      Based on the surface air temperature and precipitation observation data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) atmospheric reanalysis data, the prediction of East Asian summer climate during 1959–2016 undertaken by the Large Ensemble CESM (Community Earth System Model) Initialized Decadal Prediction (CESM-DPLE) Project are evaluated in this study. The results show that CESM-DPLE can reasonably capture the basic East Asian summer climate features and associated main atmospheric circulation patterns. In general, the prediction skill is quite high for surface air temperature but does not appear for precipitation on the interannual time scale. CESM-DPLE reproduces the anomalies of mid- and high-latitude atmospheric circulation and the East Asian monsoon and climate reasonably well, all of which are attributed to the teleconnection wave train driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A transition into the warm phase of AMO after the late 1990s decreased geopotential height and enhanced monsoon in East Asia via teleconnection wave train during summer, leading to excessive precipitation and warming over East Asia. Altogether, CESM-DPLE is capable of predicting the East Asian summer temperature on the interannual time scale and the interdecadal variations of East Asian summer climate associated with the transition of AMO phases in the late 1990s to certain degree, although there are still inadequacies. The CESM-DPLE Project provides an important resource for investigating and predicting the East Asian climate on the interannual and decadal time scales.
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