井云清,刘健,万凌峰,张宏栎. 2020. 过去2000年亚澳夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究[J]. 气象学报, 78(1):60-71, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.011
过去2000年亚澳夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究
A numerical study on the characteristics and causes of the centennial variation of Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation over the past 2000 years
投稿时间:2019-04-04  修订日期:2019-10-30
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.011
中文关键词:  亚澳夏季风  百年尺度  过去2000年  降水  气候模拟
英文关键词:Asian-Australian summer monsoon  Centennial scale  Past 2000 years  Precipitation  Climate simulation
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41420104002)、国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600401)、江苏省高校科技创新团队、江苏高校优势学科建设项目(164320H116)
作者单位E-mail
井云清 虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室/江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心/南京师范大学地理科学学院南京210023  
刘健 虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室/江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心/南京师范大学地理科学学院南京210023
江苏省大规模复杂系统数值模拟重点实验室/南京师范大学数学科学学院南京210023
青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室海洋-气候-同位素模拟开放工作室青岛266237 
jliu@njnu.edu.cn 
万凌峰 虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室/江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心/南京师范大学地理科学学院南京210023  
张宏栎 虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室/江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心/南京师范大学地理科学学院南京210023  
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中文摘要:
      利用地球系统模式(CESM)开展过去2000 年气候模拟试验,在利用观测资料、再分析资料对模拟资料进行检验的基础上,探讨百年时间尺度上亚澳夏季风降水的时、空变化特征及其成因,对于认识百年尺度气候变化规律、定量区分自然因子和人类活动对亚澳夏季风的影响具有重要意义。结果表明:过去2000 年亚澳夏季风降水和温度的波动较为一致,暖期降水多,冷期降水少。两者相关系数为0.83,达到99%置信度。此外,亚澳夏季风降水存在105、130、180 a的百年尺度周期。亚澳夏季风降水经验正交函数分解第一模态在印度洋北部呈南北反向的分布型态,在东亚地区呈负、正、负的分布型态;第二模态在印度洋北部呈正、负、正的分布型态,在东亚地区呈全区一致型的分布型态。经验正交函数分解第一特征向量和第二特征向量的正、负值中心大多出现在印度洋北部地区,南北呈不对称分布。亚澳夏季风降水的105 a周期主要受火山活动和土地利用/覆盖的影响,130 a周期主要受太阳辐射、气候系统内部变率的影响,180 a周期主要受火山活动的影响。从经验正交函数分解第一特征向量来看,整个亚澳夏季风降水主要受土地利用/覆盖、太阳辐射的影响;第二特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受太阳辐射和气候系统内部变率的影响;第三特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受气候系统内部变率和温室气体的影响。该研究对揭示百年际时间尺度气候变化特征、辨识影响气候变化的自然因素与人为因素、理解其影响气候的物理机制等具有重要意义,也为应对该区域气候变化提供了参考依据。
英文摘要:
      The characteristics and causes of the centennial variation of Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation over the past 2000 years are investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The results of the simulation are verified based on model-proxy data comparison and model-observation data comparison. This research is important for recognizing centennial climate variation and distinguishing between the influences of natural and anthropogenic climate change signals on the Asian-Australian summer monsoon. The results show that the variation of precipitation and temperature in summer of Asian-Australian is consistent over the past 2000 years. More precipitation occurs in warm periods and less occurs in cold periods. The correlation coefficient of precipitation and temperature is 0.83, which is significant at the 99% confidence level. In addition, it is found that the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation varies on three centennial periods (105, 130 and 180 a). The spatial structure of the first leading mode of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation shows a reverse pattern in the north and south of the northern Indian Ocean and a negative-positive- negative pattern in East Asia. The spatial structure of the second leading mode of EOF shows a positive-negative-positive pattern in the northern Indian Ocean and an almost in-phase variability in East Asia. The positive and negative centers of the first and second leading modes of EOF are mostly located in the northern Indian Ocean, and the spatial structures are asymmetric between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The 105 a cycle of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation is mainly caused by volcanic eruptions and land use/cover. The 130 a cycle of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation is mainly caused by total solar irradiation and internal variability of the climate system. The 180 a cycle of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation is mainly caused by volcanic eruptions. In terms of the first EOF mode, the variation of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation is mainly affected by land use/cover and total solar irradiation. The second EOF mode shows that the variation of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation is mainly affected by total solar irradiation and internal variability of climate system. The third EOF mode shows that the variation of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation is mainly affected by internal variability of the climate system and greenhouse gases. This research not only reveals the characteristics of centennial variability of climate, distinguishes between natural and anthropogenic climate change signals, and helps us to understand the mechanisms for climate change, but also provides a scientific basis for responding to climate change in the study area.
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