黄艳艳,王会军. 2020. 太平洋年代际振荡的年代际预测方法[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.026
太平洋年代际振荡的年代际预测方法
A possible approach for the decadal prediction of the PDO
投稿时间:2019-12-31  修订日期:2019-12-31
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.026
中文关键词:  太平洋年代际振荡,年代际预测,增量方法
英文关键词:PDO, Decadal prediction, Increment method
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0600703)、江苏省双创团队、江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
作者单位E-mail
黄艳艳 南京信息工程大学 hyyfeng@163.com 
王会军 南京信息工程大学 wanghj@mail.iap.ac.cn 
摘要点击次数: 56
全文下载次数: 52
中文摘要:
      太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)是北太平洋海表温度年代际变率的主模态。由于PDO对区域乃至全球气候的显著影响,合理的PDO预测结果可以带来多方面收益。然而,针对PDO及其有关的海表温度的年代际预测,目前气候模式的预测水平还十分有限。因此,该文提出了一个新的增量方法。一系列的验证结果表明,增量方法可以有效预测PDO,其中包括成功预测出PDO的年代际转折。增量方法的预测过程主要包括以下三个步骤:首先,采用五年滑动平均得到PDO的年代际变率;其次,利用三年增量形式的预测因子,构建预测模型,预测三年增量的PDO(DI_PDO);最后,将预测得到的DI_PDO加上三年前的观测PDO,得到最后预测的PDO。增量方法亦可以应用到气候系统年代际内部变率的其他模态(例如,北大西洋年代际振荡)和其他气候变量的年代际预测(例如,海表温度)。
英文摘要:
      The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a leading mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific. Skillful PDO prediction can be beneficial in many aspects because of its global and regional impacts. However, current climate models cannot provide satisfied decadal prediction of PDO and related decadal variability of sea surface temperature. Then, in this study we suggest a new prediction approach, i.e. the increment method. A series of validations demonstrate that the increment method is effective to improve the decadal prediction on PDO and can well capture the phase change of PDO with high accuracy. The prediction processes include three steps. First, a five-year smoothing is performed; second, effective preceding predictors for PDO are selected, with all predictors and predictands in the form of a three-year decadal increment (DI); third, the prediction model is set up for PDO three-year decadal increment (DI_PDO), then PDO prediction can be obtained by adding the predicted DI_PDO to the observed PDO three years ago. This new method can also be applied for decadal climate prediction of other modes (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal oscillation) and predictands (e.g., sea surface temperature).
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
分享按钮