王会军. 2020. 中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.022
中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾
Highlight of Climate Prediction Study and Operation in China over the Past Decades
投稿时间:2019-09-21  修订日期:2019-11-12
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.022
中文关键词:  气候预测,气候系统模式、东亚季风,季节内气候变异、年代际气候变化
英文关键词:climate prediction, climate system model, East Asian monsoon, intra-seasonal climate variability, inter-decadal climate variation.
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600703)
作者单位E-mail
王会军 南京信息工程大学 wanghj@mail.iap.ac.cn 
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中文摘要:
      天气预报是指一周内至两周时间尺度的气象预报,而月季及以上时间尺度的预报则属于气候预测范畴。我国的气候预测起步很早,无论在研究工作中还是在业务应用上都取得了显著成就。本文扼要地回顾了这些研究和业务发展成就,重点包括:对于季风和梅雨、寒潮的早期认知和后期研究发现、早期气候预测业务发展概况、动力气候预测的早期探索、动力-统计气候预测方法的研制和应用、气候预测模式的发展以及初始化和多模式集合预测、东亚气候系统变异的全方位探索、气候预测范畴的不断拓展和气候预测研究的不断创新。本文也对未来气候预测研究和业务发展提出了几个重大挑战性课题,涉及不同时间尺度气候变异过程之间的相互作用、季节内至年代际气候预测、气候系统模式及初始化、动力-统计相结合的气候预测方法等方面。
英文摘要:
      Weather forecast means day-to-day meteorological prediction for up to two weeks, while climate prediction is a long-term prediction from a month to decades or even longer. In China, climate prediction started quite early, both in scientific research and meteorological operation. A lot of achievements have been made in past over half-century in climate research and prediction application. In this paper, the authors briefly highlighted these achievements, including the initial recognition of East Asian monsoon, Meiyu and cold surge, climate prediction development in the early stage, development of dynamical climate prediction, development of operational climate prediction model and its initialization, research on statistical climate prediction approach, intensive study on variability and predictability of East Asian climate system, expanding the scope of climate prediction and development of new prediction approach. Prospects on climate prediction in the future are given as well in last part of this paper, with the focus on multi-scales climate variability and their interaction, intra-seasonal to inter-decadal climate prediction, improvements of the climate system model and initialization, hybrid dynamical-statistical climate prediction methods.
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