沈学顺. 2020. 我国数值天气预报的自主创新发展[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.030
我国数值天气预报的自主创新发展
Research and Development of Numerical Weather Prediciton in China
投稿时间:2019-09-02  修订日期:2019-12-02
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.030
中文关键词:  数值预报,GRAPES,半隐式半拉格朗日格点模式,物理过程,卫星资料同化,四维变分同化
英文关键词:Numerical  Weather Prediction, GRAPES, Semi-implicit  Semi-Lagrangian  grid point  model, physical  processes, satellite  data assimilation, 4-dimensional  assimilation
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
沈学顺 中国气象局数值预报中心 shenxs@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾减灾的核心科技。我国数值预报研究和业务应用一直受到高度重视,在理论、方法和数值模式研究方面取得了有广泛国际影响的研究成果。本文在回顾新中国数值天气预报自主创新研究成果的基础上,重点对GRAPES(Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)研发和业务应用的状况以及所取得的重要科学进展进行了综述。近年来,通过自主研发建立了自主数值预报业务全面体系~GRAPES体系。在我国首次以自主技术实现了从区域3~10公里到全球25~50公里分辨率的确定性与集合预报的完整数值预报体系,并建立了大气化学数值预报、台风数值预报和海浪预报系统等。自主数值预报体系的建立是长期坚持既定科学技术方向、以及研究和业务应用经验不断积累的结果,是我国自主发展数值预报技术的重要起点。
英文摘要:
      Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the core technology of weather forecasting and disaster prevention and mitigation. China"s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by meteorological society. The theory, method and numerical model development have made great achievements with a wide range of international impact. First, this paper summarized the scientific and technological progresses of NWP since 1949. Then, the main part of this paper devotes to presenting the current status and recent progresses of the self-developed NWP system- GRAPES(Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System). In recent 10 years, through independent research and development, a new operational NWP system has been established, which includes the regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction system with the resolutions ranging from 3 to 10 km for regional and 25 to 50 km for global forecasts. The GRAPES system also is extended to drive the atmospheric chemistry model and wave model.
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