严中伟. 2020. 近百年中国气候变暖趋势之再评估[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.028
近百年中国气候变暖趋势之再评估
Re-assessing Climatic Warming in China since the Last Century
投稿时间:2019-08-23  修订日期:2019-10-10
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.028
中文关键词:  全球变暖,区域变率,百年趋势,年代际波动,城市化效应
英文关键词:Global warming, Regional variability, Centennial trend, inter-decadal variations, Effect of urbanization
基金项目:中国科学院先导专项(XDA19030402)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(2016YFA0600404)、中国科学院国际合作专项(134111KYSB20160010)
作者单位E-mail
严中伟 中国科学院大气物理研究所/东亚区域气候-环境(院)重点实验室 yzw@tea.ac.cn 
摘要点击次数: 26
全文下载次数: 33
中文摘要:
      基于均一化的气温观测序列集,1900年以来中国气温升高趋势约1.3-1.7℃/100年。这个已用于新近的国家气候变化评估报告的结果,远大于早期的评估结果(0.5-0.8℃/100年)。本文回顾了始于上世纪80年代的中国百年气温序列的研究,指出其中关键进展在于近年来研发了均一化的长期站点气温观测序列集。早年构建的中国气温序列中,1940年代前异常偏暖,除了战乱期间观测缺失严重及记录代表性问题外,主要是由于1950年代前后很多台站迁址导致早期气温观测值系统性地偏高所致,从而低估长期变暖趋势。1940年代前后部分区域确实偏暖,但由于不同区域气温波动位相不一致,因而大范围平均序列中并不明显。这一事实可与近年发展的“北极暖-大陆冷”等气候变化动力学理论以及一些区域气温代用资料相映证。近几十年城市化对中国气温趋势之贡献大小尚存争议,但远非主导因素。本文最后总结了该领域尚存问题及未来值得重视的进一步研究。
英文摘要:
      The regional mean surface air temperature (SAT) in China has risen by 1.3-1.7℃/100a since 1900, according to recently developed homogenized observations. This estimate is larger than earlier ones (0.5-0.8℃/100a) adopted in the early National Reports of Climate Change in China. The present paper reviews the studies of the long-term SAT series of China, highlighting the homogenization of station observations as a key progress. The SAT series of China in early studies showed a prominent warm peak around the 1940s, mainly due to inhomogeneous records associated with site moves of a number of stations from urban to outskirts in the early 1950s, thus leading to underestimates of the centennial warming trend. Parts of China were relatively warm around the 1940s, but with different-phase interdecadal variations, while some parts were even relatively cold. This fact was supported by proxy data and could partly be explained by interdecadal changes in large-scale circulation. The effect of urbanization should have a minor contribution to the observed warming in China, although the estimates of such contributions for urban stations remained controversial. Further studies relevant to the present topic are discussed.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
分享按钮