邹燕,伍红雨,林昕,王岩. 2019. 气候年景定量化评价方法[J]. 气象学报, 77(6):1124-1133, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.067
气候年景定量化评价方法
A quantitative method for the assessment of annual state of climate
投稿时间:2018-11-30  修订日期:2019-07-11
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.067
中文关键词:  气候年景  定量化  评价模型
英文关键词:State of climate  Quantitative  Assessment model
基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201619)、福建省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项(2016R1029-4)、中国气象局气象行业标准项目(QX/T-2019-16)。
作者单位
邹燕 福建省气候中心, 福州, 350001 
伍红雨 广东省气候中心, 广州, 510080 
林昕 福建省气候中心, 福州, 350001 
王岩 福建省气象宣传科普教育中心, 福州, 350008 
摘要点击次数: 187
全文下载次数: 240
中文摘要:
      气候年景评价是气候业务服务的重要产品——气候年公报的重要内容,其中评价方法是关键。旨在以福建省为例介绍一种计算简单、业务适用性强且易推广的气候年景定量化评价模型。基于福建省66个国家级气象站1961—2010年共50 a逐日气温、降水观测数据和综合气象干旱指数(MCI)数据,在分别建立低温年景、高温年景、雨涝年景和气象干旱年景的评价指标、等级划分标准和历史序列基础上,构建了综合气候年景的评价模型、等级划分标准和历史序列,实现了对福建省低温、高温、雨涝、气象干旱及综合气候年景的定量化评价且评价结果具有历史可比性。业务应用和历史事件验证显示所建评价指标体系合理,与历史重大事件一致性良好,可为汛期雨强、冬季低温强度、夏季高温强度等定量化评估提供参考。
英文摘要:
      Assessment of the annual state of climate is an important part of the Annual Climate Bulletin,which is an essential output of climatic operations and services and assessment methods play a key role. This paper takes Fujian Province as an example to introduce a quantitative method for assessment of annual state of climate. This method is statistically simple, operationally adaptable and can be widely applied. Based on 50 years daily observations of precipitation and temperature as well as the meteorological drought composite index (MCI) over the period of 1961-2010 at the 66 National Meteorological Stations in Fujian Province, a comprehensive model for the assessment of state of climate, together with its grade standard and historical sequences have been established, in which the percentile method is used on the basis of annual status assessment indexes for cold weather, hot weather, heavy rainfall and meteorological drought. This system has realized the quantitative assessment and historical comparability of the annual state of climate for cold weather, hot weather, heavy rainfall, meteorological drought as well as the integrated climatic status. Operational application and verification against historical cases indicate that this system is reasonable and its results are highly consistent with major historical cases. This method provides a reference for quantitative assessments of precipitation intensity during rainy season, the intensity of cold or warmth in the winter or summer, etc.
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