郭艳君,王国复. 2019. 近60年中国探空观测气温变化趋势及不确定性研究[J]. 气象学报, 77(6):1073-1085, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.061
近60年中国探空观测气温变化趋势及不确定性研究
Radiosonde temperature trends and uncertainties over China in recent 60 years
投稿时间:2019-02-22  修订日期:2019-07-03
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.061
中文关键词:  探空气温  中国  均一化  变化趋势  不确定性
英文关键词:Radiosonde temperature  China  Homogenization  Trend  Uncertainty
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(2018YFC1509002、2016YFA0600301-05)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406017、GYHY201506002)、自然科学基金面上项目(41675094、41775082)、中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201917)。
作者单位E-mail
郭艳君 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081  
王国复 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 wanggf@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      基于118站探空资料研究了近60年中国850—100 hPa气温变化趋势及季节和区域特征,并通过与1979—2017年卫星微波气温的对比研究了中国探空气温均一化的不确定性。研究表明,1958—2017年中国平均对流层气温呈上升趋势,300 hPa升温最为显著,平流层下层(100 hPa)为降温趋势。冬季对流层上层升温趋势和夏季平流层下层降温趋势较强。1979—2017年较整个时段对流层升温趋势较强,平流层下层降温趋势较弱。青藏高原和西北地区对流层上层升温趋势较强。通过与卫星微波气温和邻近探空站探空气温的对比以及均一化前后日夜气温差值检测出中国探空均一化气温仍残存非均一性问题。由于参照序列的局限性,均一化未能完全去除21世纪最初10年中国探空系统变化造成的对流层中、上层至平流层下层气温系统性下降的影响,导致中国对流层上层升温趋势被低估和平流层下层降温趋势被高估。未来可通过参考卫星微波气温和邻近探空站序列调整非均一性订正顺序并增加合理性检验等方法改进中国探空气温均一化方案。
英文摘要:
      Based on homogenized radiosonde temperature data during 1958-2017 collected at 118 stations and satellite MSU temperature during 1979-2017, long-term trends of radiosonde temperature, its seasonality and regional features, and uncertainties in the homogenization of radiosonde temperature and their impact on trends in recent 60 years over China have been assessed. The results show that during 1958-2017, the radiosonde temperature averaged over China tends to increase in the troposphere with the maximum warming trend occurring at 300 hPa, whereas the temperature decreases in the lower stratosphere with a cooling trend at 100 hPa. The upper tropospheric warming trend in winter and the lower stratospheric cooling trend in summer are more robust. During 1979-2017, the warming trend in the troposphere is stronger and the cooling trend in the lower stratosphere is weaker. The warming trend in the upper troposphere is more significant over the Tibetan Plateau and northwestern China. By comparing with satellite MSU temperature and radiosonde temperature at neighboring stations, and considering the differences between daytime and nighttime, the residual inhomogeneity in radiosonde temperature has been detected. Due to the limitation of the reference data, the homogenization has not completely eliminated the influence of systematic decrease of temperatures in the upper and middle troposphere and lower stratosphere caused by radiosonde system changes in the 2000s. Therefore, the tropospheric warming trend is underestimated and the cooling trend in the lower stratospheric is overestimated over China. Future efforts are needed to apply satellite MSU temperature data and the time series from neighboring stations to adjust the sequence of reference data and add reasonableness tests at individual stations over China to further improve the homogenization.
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