王晓青,刘健,王志远,刘斌. 2020. 过去1500年典型暖期东亚夏季风年代际变化特征对比及其可能成因[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.017
过去1500年典型暖期东亚夏季风年代际变化特征对比及其可能成因
A comparison of the EASM interdecadal variability and possible causes between the typical warm periods during the past 1500 years
投稿时间:2019-04-30  修订日期:2019-11-09
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.017
中文关键词:  中世纪暖期,现代暖期,东亚夏季风,年代际变化,可能成因
英文关键词:Medieval Warm Period, Present Warm Period, East Asian summer monsoon, Interdecadal variability, Possible Causes
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41420104002)、国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600401)、江苏省高校科技创新团队项目、江苏高校优势学科建设项目(164320H116)共同资助
作者单位E-mail
王晓青 河北省人工影响天气办公室 1269780529@qq.com 
刘健 南京师范大学地理科学学院 jliu@njnu.edu.cn 
王志远 浙江师范大学地理与环境学院 wzhy@zjnu.edu.cn 
刘斌 南京师范大学地理科学学院 sdliubin2009@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      利用通用地球系统模式(Community Earth System Model,简称CESM)开展的过去1500年气候模拟全强迫试验和控制试验结果,在验证模式模拟性能的基础上,采用多变量经验正交函数分解(Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function,简称MV-EOF)等方法,对比分析了典型暖期东亚夏季风(East Asian Summer Monsoon,简称EASM)年代际变化特征及其成因机制。结果表明,两个典型暖期东亚夏季风变化的主周期均为准10年和准20年。中世纪暖期(Medieval Warm Period,简称MWP),黄河流域至日本南部一带降水偏多,长江流域以南和西北太平洋一带降水偏少;现代暖期(Present Warm Period,简称PWP),东亚夏季风降水表现为“南涝北旱”型分布特征。内部变率是影响典型暖期东亚夏季风变化的主控因子之一,其中太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,简称PDO)起到了决定性作用。当PDO处于正位相时,热带西太平洋(东亚大陆)变暖(变冷),东亚地区海陆热力差减弱,对应弱的EASM。另外,MWP时期海平面气压的动态变化对应850hpa风场在西北太平洋(日本海)一带均出现了经向排列的异常反气旋(气旋),从而导致中国南部(北部)降水偏多(偏少)。
英文摘要:
      The characteristics and causes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) interdecadal variability during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, 1001–1100 A.D.) and Present Warm Period (PWP, 1901–2000 A.D.) are examined by using results of all-forcing and control experiments over the past 1500 years through the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Results show that the interdecadal variability of the EASM is characterized by a north-south dipole rainfall pattern in eastern China and the significant interdecadal period of EASM is found around 10 and 20 years during both periods. These changes are mainly attributed to the internal variability, which are preliminarily dominated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The positive phase of PDO induces the warming (cooling) over the tropical western Pacific (East Asia continent), featuring a “colder land-warmer ocean” pattern, which favors a weak EASM. Besides, the meridionally arranged anomalous low level anticyclone (cyclone) occurs over the northwest Pacific (Sea of Japan) during MWP. These are dynamically in accordance with the sea level pressure, thus resulting in the increased (reduced) precipitation over the southern China (northern China).
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