井云清,刘健,万凌峰,张宏栎. 2020. 过去2000年亚澳夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.011
过去2000年亚澳夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究
The Simulation Study on the Characteristics and Causes of the Centennial Variation of Asian-Australian Summer Monsoon Precipitation over the Past 2000 Years
投稿时间:2019-04-04  修订日期:2019-10-25
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.011
中文关键词:  亚澳夏季风,百年尺度,过去2000年,降水,气候模拟
英文关键词:Asian-Australian  summer monsoon, Centennial  variation, The  past 2000 years, Precipitation, Climate  simulation
基金项目:国家自然基金项目(41420104002)、国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600401)、江苏省高校科技创新团队、江苏高校优势学科建设项目(164320H116)
作者单位E-mail
井云清 南京师范大学地理科学学院 jingyunqing1993@163.com 
刘健 南京师范大学地理科学学院 njdllj@126.com 
万凌峰 南京师范大学地理科学学院 wanlingfeng_123@qq.com 
张宏栎 南京师范大学地理科学学院 389756915@qq.com 
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全文下载次数: 21
中文摘要:
      利用地球系统模式CESM(Community Earth System Model)开展的过去2000年气候模拟试验资料,在利用观测资料、再分析资料对模拟资料进行检验的基础上,探讨在百年时间尺度上亚澳夏季风降水的时空变化特征及其成因,对于认识百年尺度气候变化规律、定量区分自然因子和人类活动对亚澳夏季风的影响具有重要的意义。结果表明:过去2000年亚澳夏季风降水和温度的波动变化较为一致,具体表现为暖期降水多,冷期降水少。两者相关系数为0.83,达到99%置信度。此外,亚澳夏季风降水存在105年、130年、180年的百年尺度周期。亚澳夏季风降水EOF第一模态在印度洋北部呈南北反向的分布型态,而在东亚地区呈负、正、负的分布型态;第二模态在印度洋北部呈正、负、正的分布型态,而在东亚地区呈全区一致型的分布型态。EOF第一特征向量和EOF第二特征向量的正、负值中心大多出现在热带地区,南北呈不对称分布。亚澳夏季风降水的105年周期主要受火山活动和土地利用/覆盖的影响,130年周期主要受太阳辐射、气候系统内部变率的影响,180年周期主要受火山活动的影响。从EOF第一特征向量来看,整个亚澳夏季风降水主要受土地利用/覆盖、太阳辐射的影响;EOF第二特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受太阳辐射和气候系统内部变率的影响。EOF第三特征向量表明亚澳夏季风降水在百年际空间变化上主要受气候系统内部变率和温室气体的影响。该研究对揭示百年际时间尺度气候变化特征、辨识影响气候变化的自然因素与人为因素、理解其影响气候的物理机制等具有重要意义,也为应对该区域气候变化提供了参考依据。
英文摘要:
      The characteristics and causes of the centennial variation of Asian–Australian summer monsoon precipitation over the past 2000 years using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The results of simulation were verified by model-proxy data comparison and model-observation data comparison. This research has an important significance to recognize the climate of centennial variation and to distinguish the influence of natural and anthropogenic climate change signal on the Asian-Australian summer monsoon. The results show that the variation of precipitation and temperature for Asian–Australian summer monsoon is consistent over the past 2000 years. Which show that the precipitation is more in warm periods and less in cold periods. The correlation coefficient of precipitation and temperature was 0.83, which was significant at 99% confidence level. In addition, we found that there are four centennial periodicities (105a, 130a and 180a) in the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation. The spatial structures of the first mode of EOF of Asian–Australian summer monsoon precipitation show the north and south reverse in the northern of Indian Ocean and minus, plus, minus in East Asia. While the spatial structures of the second mode of EOF show the plus, minus, plus in the northern of Indian Ocean and almost an in phase variability in East Asia. The centers of positive and negative of the first mode of EOF and the second mode of EOF were mostly located in tropics, and the spatial structures showed an asymmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The 105-yr periodicity of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation were caused by the volcanic eruptions and land use/cover. The 130-yr cycle of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation was caused by the total solar irradiation and the internal variability of climate system. The 180-yr cycle of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation was caused by the volcanic eruptions. In terms of the first EOF mode, the variation of Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation was mainly affected by land use/cover and the total solar irradiation. The second EOF mode show that the variation of Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation was mainly affected by the total solar irradiation and the internal variability of climate system. The third EOF mode show that the variation of Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation was mainly affected by the internal variability of climate system and the greenhouse gases. This research could have important significance to point out the characteristics of centennial variability of climate, distinguish between natural and anthropogenic climate change signal, understand mechanisms driving climate change, but also provide scientific basis for respond the climate change in the study area.
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