庄照荣,王瑞春,李兴良. 2020. 全球大尺度信息在3km GRAPES-RAFS系统中的应用[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2020.002
全球大尺度信息在3km GRAPES-RAFS系统中的应用
Application of global large scale information for GRAEPS RAFS system
投稿时间:2019-03-15  修订日期:2019-07-01
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2020.002
中文关键词:  全球大尺度信息,GRAPES RAFS,区域三维变分,混合尺度分析
英文关键词:global large information, GRAPES RAFS, regional 3DVar, blending scale analysis
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助(2018YFC1507502、2017YFC1502001)
作者单位E-mail
庄照荣 国家气象中心 zhuangzr@126.com 
王瑞春 国家气象中心 wangrc@cma.gov.cn 
李兴良 国家气象中心 lixliang@126.com 
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全文下载次数: 115
中文摘要:
      为了缓解快速分析预报循环过程中固定边界条件造成的预报锁定,减少spin up时间和提高模式预报能力,全球模式产品的大尺度部分的信息被引入GRAPES-RAFS系统中,通过二维离散余弦变换(DCT:Discrete Cosine Transform)方法对全球模式产品和区域分析进行谱分解,获得综合全球大尺度和区域中小尺度信息的混合尺度分析?通过2018年5月10日-6月9日的一个月间歇分析预报循环,比较控制试验和混合尺度分析试验的冷启和暖启预报结果,试验结果表明,在快速分析预报循环中,全球大尺度信息的加入不仅增加分析的大尺度部分信息和降低地面气压倾向,减少模式预报的spin up时间;并且使地面要素场、分析场和降水的暖启预报质量有显著提高;同时台风艾云尼路径预报也更加接近观测?另外,GRAPES-RAFS循环的暖启与冷启预报相比,暖启初始场比冷启的更加协调,但暖启地面2m温度和10m风场的预报质量差于冷启预报,并且其ETS降水评分也明显低于冷启预报。混合尺度方案在RAFS系统中的应用能有效增加初始场的协调性和提高地面、高空要素和降水预报质量。
英文摘要:
      For alleviating the problem caused by the fixed boundary condition in GRAPES-RAFS system and improving the forecast qualities of regional model, a blending method to merge large scale information of global model with meso-scale information of regional analysis from the GRAPES-RAFS system is implemented using Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) filter. Beginning from 10 May to 9 June 2018, the forecast qualities between the control experiments of the cold starting and warm-up initilizations and the blending scale analysis experiments with GRAPES-RAFS are compared. The numerical results indicate that the large scale information and variables’ harmony of analyses increase, and that the spin up time is decreased with the global information every 3 hours analysis in GRAPES-RAFS merged. The forecast qualities of surface variables, analysis and precipitation with warm start are obviously improved. In addition, the simulated tracks of typhoon Ewiniar are much close to observations by using the blending analysis. The warm-up initial physical fields which leads to far smaller surface pressure tendency are more harmonic than those of cold starting initializations. However, it is observed that the warm-up forecast qualities of 2m temperature, 10m wind is not better than the cold starting ones and that the warm-up precipitation scores of ETS are lower than cold starting forecast ones as well.
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