徐道生,张邦林,曾庆存,戴光丰,张艳霞. 2019. 一种基于IAU技术的台风初始化方案[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.060
一种基于IAU技术的台风初始化方案
A typhoon initialization scheme based on IAU technology
投稿时间:2019-03-04  修订日期:2019-05-21
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.060
中文关键词:  台风初始化,IAU,山竹
英文关键词:typhoon initialization scheme, IAU, MANGKHUT
基金项目:广东省科技计划省直部门协同创新重点项目(21080208),国家自然科学基金(41705089)
作者单位E-mail
徐道生 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所 dsxu@grmc.gov.cn 
张邦林 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所 zhangbl@grmc.gov.cn 
曾庆存  zengqc@mail.iao.ac.cn 
戴光丰  daigf@grmc.gov.cn 
张艳霞  zhangyx@grmc.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      台风初始化方案最大的困难在于它只能根据有限的观测资料(台风中心位置,最低气压,最大风速和大风半径等)来构造一个与模式动力-物理过程相互协调的涡旋模型。本文首先根据实际观测对背景场中的涡旋扰动进行重定位和风速调整,然后将IAU(Incremental Analysis Update)技术应用于台风初始化方案中,把调整后的涡旋当做一个强迫项逐渐加入到模式预报过程中,通过模式自身调整来得到一个协调性较好的台风初始结构,从而改善模式对台风的预报性能。对“山竹”台风的多次预报结果表明:(1)台风初始化对于台风路径误差影响较小,对于强度预报改进则比较明显。特别是在台风形成初期阶段,台风初始化技术能够有效的加强全球模式分析场中的涡旋强度,并解决预报过程中强度偏弱的问题。(2)根据预先给定的三维风场,IAU技术能通过模式自身预报过程来对其它变量进行调整,从而得到一个热力和动力相互协调的初始涡旋结构。相对于仅仅对初始风场的做法,它对24小时之后的路径和强度预报误差会有更进一步的改善。(3)对IAU中的松弛时间进行参数敏感性试验,发现该变量取为3-6小时效果较好。
英文摘要:
      The main difficult of typhoon initialization lies in the generation of other variables which are consistent with the prescribed wind according limited observation data (such as the location of typhoon center, minimum pressure, maximum wind speed, and size of typhoon). In this article IAU(Incremental Analysis Updates) was introduced into typhoon initialization scheme to solve this problem. The vortex perturbation in background was relocated and adjusted according observation, then the other variables were generated by the model through a strong 6-h nudging to the prescribed wind field. It is found after Multiple forecasts of typhoon MANGKHUT that: (1) the influence of typhoon initialization on the track forecast was weak, while the forecast of intensity was improved obviously. Especially in the generation stage , the intensity of typhoon was strengthed after initialization process, which was more consistent with observation. (2) the IAU technology could adjust other variables according prescribed wind field, and produce a more consistent vortex structure. The forecast of typhoon track and intensity were further improved after IAU technology was used.(3)the sensitive test of relax time showed 3-6 hours was best choose.
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