郭艳君,王国复. 2019. 近60年中国探空观测气温变化趋势及不确定性研究[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.061
近60年中国探空观测气温变化趋势及不确定性研究
Radiosonde temperature trends and uncertainties over China in recent 60 years
投稿时间:2019-02-22  修订日期:2019-04-22
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.061
中文关键词:  探空气温,中国,均一化,变化趋势,不确定性
英文关键词:Radiosonde  temperature, China, Homogenization, Trend, Uncertainty
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(2018YFC1509002,2016YFA0600301-05)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406017,GYHY201506002), 自然科学基金面上项目(41675094,41775082), 中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201917)
作者单位E-mail
郭艳君 国家气候中心 gyj@cma.gov.cn 
王国复 国家气候中心 wanggf@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      [资料,方法和目的]基于118站探空资料研究了近60年中国850-100hPa气温变化趋势及季节和区域特征,并通过1979-2017年卫星微波的气温对比研究了中国探空气温均一化的不确定性。[结论]研究表明,1958-2017年中国平均对流层气温呈上升趋势,300hPa升温最为显著,平流层下层100hPa为降温趋势。冬季对流层上层升温趋势和夏季平流层下层降温趋势较强。1979-2017年较整个时段对流层升温趋势增强,平流层下层降温趋势减弱。高原和西北地区对流层上层升温趋势较强。通过卫星微波气温和邻近代表站探空气温对比以及均一化前后日夜差值检测出中国探空均一化气温仍残存非均一性问题。由于参照序列的局限性,均一化未能完全去除2000年代中国探空系统变化造成的对流层中上层至平流层下层气温系统性下降的影响,导致中国对流层上层增温趋势被低估和平流层下层降温趋势被高估。未来可通过参考卫星微波气温和邻近站序列、调整非均一性订正顺序并增加合理性检验等方法改进中国探空气温均一化方案。
英文摘要:
      [Data] Based on homogenized radiosonde temperatures during 1958-2017 at 118 stations and satellite MSU temperatures during 1979-2017,[Methods and Objective]long-term trends of radiosonde temperatures,seasonality and regional features, the uncertainties in homogenization of radiosonde temperatures and the impact on trends over China have been assessed over China in recent 60 years.[Result]The results show radiosonde temperatures averaged over China tend to increase in the troposphere with maximum of warming trends at 300hPa and decrease in the lower stratosphere with cooling trends at 100hPa during 1958-2017. The upper tropospheric warming trends in winter and the lower stratospheric cooling trends in summer are more robust. During 1979-2017, warming trends in the troposphere are stronger and cooling trends in the lower stratosphere are weaker. The warming trends in upper troposphere are more significant over the Tibetan Plateau and northwestern China. By comparing with satellite MSU temperatures, radiosonde temperatures at neighbor stations and the difference between day and night time, the residual inhomogeneity in radionsonde temperatures have been detected. For the limitation of the reference, homogenization have not eliminated the influence of systematic decrease of temperatures in the upper and middle troposphere and lower stratosphere caused by radiosonde system changes in 2000s,Thus,the tropospheric warming trends have been underestimated and cooling trends in lower stratospheric have been overestimated over China. Future efforts are needed to apply satellite MSU temperatures and the time series from neighbor stations, to adjust sequence of references and add reasonableness tests at individual stations over China for improving the homogenization.
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