曹伟华,陈明轩. 2019. 雷暴区域追踪矢量与雷暴单体追踪矢量融合临近预报研究[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.064
雷暴区域追踪矢量与雷暴单体追踪矢量融合临近预报研究
The vector blending study based on object-based tracking vectors and cross correlation tracking vectors
投稿时间:2019-02-20  修订日期:2019-06-04
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.064
中文关键词:  TREC,TITAN,移动矢量,降水,外推临近预报
英文关键词:TREC, TITAN, Vector, Preciptation, Nowcast
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
曹伟华 北京城市气象研究院 whcao@ium.cn 
陈明轩 北京城市气象研究院 mxchen@ium.cn 
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中文摘要:
      雷暴追踪矢量的准确性是决定短临降水外推预报效果的关键。以TREC(Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation)为代表的区域追踪和以TITAN为代表的单体追踪(Thunderstorm Identi?cation Tracking Analysis and Nowcasting)是追踪雷暴移动矢量的两种典型方法。TREC基于追踪格点雷达回波数据得到,能较好体现层状云降水和对流云降水系统的区域整体移动趋势;TITAN可以识别、分析雷暴的二维和三维属性,自动跟踪雷暴的移动速度和方向,形成雷暴单体移动矢量,能够更好的刻画小尺度雷暴单体的移动速度和方向。本文将TREC和TITAN两种移动矢量进行融合,生成新的外推移动矢量,既保留了TREC方法在刻画大尺度雷暴整体移动趋势信息方面的特长,又能充分发挥TITAN方法在刻画小尺度雷暴运动细节信息上的优势。融合试验表明,采用TREC和TITAN两种降水移动矢量融合的新技术,可以明显改进降水外推移动矢量场估计的准确性,提升降水落区和强度外推预报的准确性,对改善北京地区定量强降水短临预报水平具有明显正效果。
英文摘要:
      The accuracy of thunderstorm tracking vector is the key to determine the effect of precipitation nowcasting. Regional tracking represented by TREC (Tracking Radar Echoes by Association) and object-based tracking represented by TITAN (Thunderstorm Identity Enhancement Tracking Analysis and Nowcasting) are two typical methods for tracking thunderstorm motion vectors. TREC is based on tracking grid radar echo data, which can better reflect the overall movement trend of both stratiform and convective precipitation. TITAN can identify and analyze the two or three dimensional attributes of thunderstorms, automatically track the moving speed and direction of thunderstorms, and form centroid-tracking vectors, which can better describe the moving speed and direction of small-scale thunderstorms. In this paper, vectors of TREC and TITAN are blended to generate a new extrapolated moving vectors, which can retain the advantages of the overall information of large-scale thunderstorms movement and give full play to TITAN''s advantage in describing detailed information of small scale thunderstorm motion. The blending test shows that the new technology can obviously improve the accuracy of precipetation vector fields by improving the accuracy of precipitation area and intensity, and has positive effect on improving the skill of precipitation nowcasting in Beijing area.
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