常蕊,朱蓉,尹宜舟,马文通,章大全. 2019. 基于频谱补偿和数值模拟技术的江苏近海大气边界层极端风速研究[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.054
基于频谱补偿和数值模拟技术的江苏近海大气边界层极端风速研究
Estimation of the offshore extreme winds over JiangSu province based on spectral correction and numerical simulation
投稿时间:2019-01-23  修订日期:2019-03-26
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.054
中文关键词:  近海风能资源  频谱分析  数值模拟  极端风速  大气边界层
英文关键词:Offshore wind energy assessment  Spectral correction  Numerical simulation  Extreme wind  Atmospheric boundary layer
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41605086)和国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB1501100)
作者单位E-mail
常蕊 国家气候中心 changrui@cma.gov.cn 
朱蓉  rongzhu@cma.gov.cn 
尹宜舟  yinyizhou@cma.gov.cn 
马文通  mawentong@cpipec.com 
章大全  zhangdq@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      在平均风速基本满足近海风力发电需求的前提下,近海大气边界层百米高度处极端风速的合理估算成为我国海上风电开发领域的研究热点。[目的]与低纬度海域台风极端风速的广泛研究不同,由于缺乏有效的技术手段,对于台风影响相对较少的中纬度海域,极端风速的科学认识明显不足。[资料和方法]研究以江苏近海为例,通过频谱分析技术,定量刻画了数值模拟风速能谱在高频波段的能量衰减和截断特征;进而利用风速能谱曲线在频率域的积分及其在高频波段的补偿,实现无观测区域年最大风速的估算。与台风风场数值模拟技术相结合,综合考虑了我国中纬度海域受寒潮大风和热带气旋大风共同影响的复杂、特有气候特征,建立了一套可推广应用的近海大气边界层百米高度处极端风速估算的新方法。[结果]据此推算了江苏近海100m高度处50年一遇极端风速,结果表明:受寒潮大风影响,江苏北部海域的50年一遇风速超过40 m/s;少量北上的热带气旋则造成响水和如东附近海域40 m/s,甚至44 m/s以上的50年一遇风速;中部盐城附近海域的50年一遇风速则普遍低于35 m/s。[结论]研究成果不仅为该海域近海海洋工程的开发设计及安全运行提供重要的科学支撑,同时也有助于加深对我国极端气候事件的科学认识和大气边界层科学理论的发展。
英文摘要:
      Offshore wind energy development and utilization plays an important role in haze governance and fulfilling the reduction commitments in advance. The reserve estimation of offshore wind resource in China is abundant enough to meet the basic needs from the exploitation of wind power. Recently, more and more attention is paid to the accurate estimation of the offshore extreme winds, which impose an important effect on the wind turbine designs and operations. Different from the abundant study of the typhoon extreme winds, because of lack of the effective methods, it shows a significant deficiency in the study of offshore extreme winds over the mid-high latitude, which is also the key area for the exploitation of wind power. Therefore, based on numerical modeling and spectrum analysis, the paper developed a practical, reliable and robust method for 50-years extreme wind estimation that can be applied for other mid-latitude offshore area in China. Taking into account the complex climatic characteristics of China""s mid-latitude offshore area affected by high latitude cold winter wind and tropical cyclone, the 50-yr return wind speeds at 100m over Jiangsu offshore area were estimated by this new method. It was shown that (1) affected by the strong cold winter winds, the 50-yr return wind speed in the northern part of Jiangsu offshore area exceeded 40 m/s; (2) the 50-yr return wind speeds of 40 m/s, or even 44m/s near Xiangshui and Rudong was related to the limited typhoon activities; and (3) the 50-yr return wind speeds over the central Jiangsu offshore area were generally lower than 35 m/s. This study may not only provide a scientific basis of the design and operation of offshore engineering, such as offshore wind farms in the future, but also contribute to future understanding of the extreme climate events in China and the development of atmospheric boundary layer theory as well.
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