王欢,李栋梁. 0. 人类活动排放的CO2及气溶胶对20世纪70年代末中国东部夏季降水年代际转折的影响[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.012
人类活动排放的CO2及气溶胶对20世纪70年代末中国东部夏季降水年代际转折的影响
Effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and aerosols on decadal transition of summer precipitation over eastern China in the late 1970s
投稿时间:2018-04-10  修订日期:2018-06-08
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2019.012
中文关键词:  中国东部夏季降水,年代际转折,人类活动,地球系统耦合模式,水分收支
英文关键词:Summer precipitation over eastern China,Decadal transition,Anthropogenic emissions,Community Earth System Model,Moisture budget
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973 计划)项目(2013CB430202);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506001-1);国家自然科学基金项目(41305080、91337109);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
作者单位E-mail
王欢 南京信息工程大学 wangh.11s@igsnrr.ac.cn 
李栋梁 南京信息工程大学 lidl@nuist.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      全球变暖背景下,中国东部夏季降水在20世纪70年代末开始较上个世纪相比呈现东北及长江中下游地区多雨,华北及华南少雨的特征。与此同时,人类活动排放的CO2及气溶胶量也发生了明显的年代际变化。本文利用地球系统耦合模式(CESM)诊断了中国东部夏季的水分收支对人类活动排放的CO2及气溶胶年代际变化的响应。发现CO2排放量增加后,江淮流域的水汽辐合以及中国南方的水汽辐散主要是与质量辐散有关的动力贡献及与湿度梯度相关的热力贡献共同作用的结果,但动力作用更显著。气溶胶效应则主要通过动力作用使得江淮流域水汽辐合,而中国南方地区水汽辐散。虽然CO2和气溶胶对辐射量及温度的影响差别很大,但通过改变温度梯度,热成风效应产生的动力作用都会导致江淮流域上升运动增强,降水增加;而中国南方下沉运动显著,降水减少,与观测结果一致,且CO2相较于气溶胶的影响更为显著,证实了20世纪70年代末人类活动对中国东部夏季降水年代际转折的影响。
英文摘要:
      Against the background of global warming, summer precipitation over eastern China (ECSP) experienced a significant decadal change at the end of the 1970s demonstrating positive rainfall anomalies over northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and negative rainfall anomalies over north and south China. We examined anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and aerosols which had discernible decadal transitions around the mid- to late 1970s that generated this ECSP change and elucidated the underlying mechanism. Moisture budget over eastern China was calculated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The water vapor convergence over the Yangtze-Huai River valley and moisture divergence over southern China in the CO2 simulation is dominated by the combined effects of the dynamic contribution related to mass divergence and the thermodynamic contribution related to moisture gradients, which have greater effect on ECSP than that of aerosols. Aerosols forcing contributes to the rainfall increasing over the Yangtze-Huai River valley and decreasing over south China primarily by the dynamic efforts. The enhanced upward and downward motions caused by the changes in temperature gradient lead to similar rainfall anomalies over eastern China under the effects of CO2 and aerosols, although their impacts on radiation and temperature are different. These confirm that CO2 and aerosols did affect on the decadal transition of ECSP at the end of the 1970s.
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