叶德超,管兆勇,孙思远,李鑫,夏阳. 2018. 2016年梅雨期间长江中下游强降水与对流层上层斜压波包的关系[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2018.038
2016年梅雨期间长江中下游强降水与对流层上层斜压波包的关系
The relationship of heavy precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River with baroclinic wave packets in the upper troposphere during the Meiyu period of 2016
投稿时间:2017-11-07  修订日期:2018-03-10
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2018.038
中文关键词:  斜压波包,梅雨强降水事件,信息流,长江中下游,2016年
英文关键词:Baroclinic wave packets, Heavy rainfall events in Meiyu, Information flow, the Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, Year 2016
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY20140624)和灾害天气国家重点实验室课题2015LASW-A03和江苏省PAPAD项目
作者单位E-mail
叶德超 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 yedechao@nuist.edu.cn 
管兆勇 南京信息工程大学 guanzy@nuist.edu.cn 
孙思远 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 sunsy@nuist.edu.cn 
李鑫 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 tlsunnylx8975@126.com 
夏阳 六盘水气象局 sun_shine_xia@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      2016年6-7月,长江中下游地区发生了自1998年以来最严重的强降水事件,造成了重大的经济损失。 利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国2479站逐月及逐日降水资料,研究了2016年梅雨期间长江中下游地区降水与欧亚大陆对流层上层斜压波包活动的关系,并诊断了两者之间的信息流向,结果表明,梅雨期间的高频斜压波动具有明显的下游频散效应。波动起源于黑海,沿西北—东南方向于3-4天后传至长江中下游地区。斜压波包为长江中下游地区强降水的发生提供了必要的能量。波作量通量矢量的分布表明,梅雨期间每天都有来自西风带上游的扰动能量向长江中下游流域传播。而梅雨期间降水与斜压波包之间的信息流关系表明,二者之间存在信息传递。因此,3-4天并源于黑海附近的斜压波包活动是2016年长江中下游梅雨期间异常降水的成因。这些结果为深刻认识长江中下游地区强降水事件发生的成因和有效预测提供了线索。
英文摘要:
      During June and July of 2016, there occurred a severest rainfall event in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, causing huge economic losses there. Using NECP/NCAR reanalysis data along with 2479 weather stations precipitation data in China from 1979 to 2016, we have analysed the relationship between precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and baroclinic wave packets in the upper troposphere over Eurasia. The result demonstrates that the high frequency baroclinic disturbances disperse the wave energy downstream into East Asia in Meiyu period. The disturbances appear in the Black sea, and then propagate southeastwards to middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River during 3 or 4 days. This wave energy propagation is well displayed by the baroclinic wave packets. The wave-activity fluxes also show that disturbance energy disperses from westerlies in middle-latitudes southeastwards into the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in Meiyu period. To further understand the relationship between the Rossby wave packets and severe precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, we calculate the information flow, showing that there are indeed information flows between the baroclinic wave packets and precipitation changes in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in Meiyu period. These results provide clues to understanding and forecasting the heavy rainfall events in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.
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