王安乾,苏布达,王艳君,黄金龙,温姗姗,姜彤. 2017. 全球升温1.5℃与2℃情景下中国极端低温事件变化与耕地暴露度研究[J]. 气象学报, ():-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2017.029
全球升温1.5℃与2℃情景下中国极端低温事件变化与耕地暴露度研究
Variation of the Extreme Minimum Temperature Events and Farmland Exposure under Global Warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃
投稿时间:2016-09-01  最后修改时间:2017-01-05
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2017.029
中文关键词:  全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃  极端低温事件  耕地暴露度  强度-面积-持续时间  CCLM模式  中国
英文关键词:1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming period  Extreme minimum temperature events  Exposure of Farmland  Intensity-area-duration  CCLM  China
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41671211,41401056)、国家自然科学基金会和巴基斯坦科学基金会合作研究项目(41661144027)共同资助
作者单位E-mail
王安乾 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室;中国科学院大学 wangaq1990@163.com 
苏布达  subd@cma.gov.cn 
王艳君  yjwang78@163.com 
黄金龙  huangjl_2012@163.com 
温姗姗  wenshanshan1989@126.com 
姜彤 中国气象局国家气候中心;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同中心/地理与遥感学院 jiangtong@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      基于区域气候模式COSMO-CLM (CCLM)的1960-2100年逐日最低气温数据及2000年中国土地利用数据,采用强度-面积-持续时间(Intensity-Area-Duration, IAD)方法,以全球升温1.5℃(RCP 2.6情景)和2.0℃(RCP 4.5情景)为目标,研究不同持续时间中国极端低温事件变化特征、最强极端低温事件强度与面积关系和最强中心空间分布,分析极端低温事件下耕地面积暴露度的变化规律。研究发现:1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,持续1至9日的极端低温事件频次相对于基准期(1986-2005年)下降30%至54%,强度变化-1%至8.8%,影响面积下降7%至21%;升温2.0℃,频次下降48%至80%,强度上升6%至11.5%,影响面积则在-14%至19%变化。2)全球不同升温情景有可能发生强度和面积超过基准期最强事件的极端低温。全球升温1.5℃到2.0℃时,同等面积上的最强极端低温事件强度明显下降,最强极端低温事件中心由西北和西南转移到华中和华南等地。3)不同升温情景下,暴露于极端低温事件的中国耕地面积明显少于基准期,且升温幅度越高下降程度越大。最强极端低温事件的耕地暴露度则随温度的升高而增大。升温1.5℃时华东、华北与华中等地暴露在最强极端低温事件的耕地面积相对于基准期有所增加,升温2.0℃时,在华东与华北等地有大幅上升。全球不同温升情景下,极端低温事件频次与影响面积持续下降,但强度上升;随着升温幅度的增高,这种差异变化特征越来越明显;特别应注意的是,随着温度上升,发生强度和面积超过当前记录到的最强极端低温事件的可能性增大;应加强极端事件的预警预报和监测,减缓经济社会的损失。
英文摘要:
      Based on the daily minimum temperature data of the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for 1960-2100 and land use data for 2000 in China, the Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method was applied to characterize the extreme minimum temperature events, and the relationship between intensity and coverage of extreme minimum temperature events, spatial distribution of the severest events, exposure of farmland to the extreme minimum temperature events were analyzed under global warming of 1.5℃ (RCP 2.6 scenario) and 2.0℃ (RCP 4.5 scenario). The research results show that: 1, In the 1.5℃ warming period, frequencies of extreme minimum temperature events of 1- to 9-day duration will decrease 30%~54%, with their intensities change -1%~8.8% and areas decrease 7%~21%, relative to the reference period (1986-2005). In the 2.0℃ warming period, frequencies of the extremes will decrease 48%~80%, with increase of intensities by 6%~11.5%, and change of area by -14%~19%. 2. There are possibilities that both the intensity and area of extreme minimum temperature events in the future exceed the severest events in the reference period. Intensity of the severest events in a 1.5℃ warming will stronger than the events with same coverage in a 2.0℃ warming, but center of the severest events might move from Northwest and Southwest to Central and South China. 3. Farmland exposed to the extreme minimum temperature events will be less in the warming periods than that of the reference period, and the higher the temperature increase, the greater the decrease. However, farmland exposed to the severest events will increase in the East, North and Central China in the 1.5℃ warming to a certain extent, and more obvious in East and North China in the 2.0℃ warming. Aforementioned findings revealed that frequency and coverage of the extreme minimum temperature events will decrease, but their intensity might increase with the rising of temperature. With the increasing probability of stronger than past severest event, improvement of early warning is still a matter of great urgency for mitigation of the impact of extremes on society and economy.
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