周莉,江志红. 2017. 基于转移累计概率分布统计降尺度方法的未来降水预估研究-以湖南省为例[J]. 气象学报, ():-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2017.012
基于转移累计概率分布统计降尺度方法的未来降水预估研究-以湖南省为例
Zhou Li1 Jiang Zhihong2
投稿时间:2016-02-18  最后修改时间:2016-07-08
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2017.012
中文关键词:  统计降尺度,转移累计概率分布,湖南地区,未来降水预估
英文关键词:Statistical  downscaling, Cumulative  distribution function-transform (CDF-t), Hunan  Province, Projection
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目
作者单位E-mail
周莉 .湖南省气象台 442601285@qq.com 
江志红 气象灾害教育部重点实验室,气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京信息工程大学 zhjiang@nuist.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      基于最新一代CMIP5模式历史情景和未来RCP4.5情景下的模式逐日降水数据,使用转移累计概率分布(CDF-t)统计降尺度方法,从空间变化和时间变率两个方面评估该降尺度方法对湖南日降水量模拟能力的改善效果,并在此基础上对未来降水量变化进行预估。结果表明:CMIP5气候模式由于分辨率较低,无法细致反映湖南地形变化和大气环流影响导致的区域降水变化特征。经过CDF-t统计降尺度处理之后,模式对湖南地区降水的时空分布模拟与实况更为接近,绝大部分模式对降水空间结构的模拟能力都有显著提高。基于CDF-t统计降尺度的多模式集合预估结果表明:21世纪湖南地区日降水量呈现弱的增加趋势,增加趋势为0.95%/10a。21世纪初、中和末期相对于1986-2005年的气候平均态,区域日降水量分别增加了4.6%、5%和5.2%。三个时期湖南地区日平均降水变化的空间分布存在较好的一致性,皆表现为湘西北、湘东北和湘东南三个区域降水增幅最为显著,且随着辐射强迫的增加,三个地区降水增幅也呈递增趋势。需要指出的是,预估结果在模式之间存在一定差异,并且这种差异随着辐射强迫的增加而增加。
英文摘要:
      Based on the CMIP5 historical and RCP4.5 data sets, the ability of models in simulating the spatial pattern and interannual variability of precipitation over the Hunan province are evaluated, using the statistical downscaling method called the transform cumulative distribution function (CDF-t). The future precipitation change is then projected. The results show that due to the low resolution of GCM models, the characteristic of precipitation related to the terrain and atmospheric circulation over Hunan are not be exactly reproduced. The downscaled precipitation match the observation well, the capacity of CMIP5 models for spatial pattern and interannual variability can be effectively improved by the downscaling approach. The multi-models ensemble of projection show that during the 21st century, the precipitation over Huan province showed a slightly increase trend with 0.95% pre decade. The precipitation was projected to increase by 4.6%, 5% and 5.2% with respect to the 1986-2005 for Hunan province during 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 respectively. The spatial of future change in the three periods have a good consistency, warming would most obviously take place in northeast, northwest and southeast of Hunan province. It should be noted that there exist difference among models. with the increasing of the radiative forcing, the difference tend to be larger.
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