杨若子,周广胜. 2015. 东北三省玉米主要农业气象灾害综合危险性评估[J]. 气象学报, 73(6):1141-1153, doi:10.11676/qxxb2015.073
东北三省玉米主要农业气象灾害综合危险性评估
A comprehensive risk assessment of the main maize agro-meteorological disasters in the three provinces of Northeast China
投稿时间:2015-04-21  修订日期:2015-07-01
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2015.073
中文关键词:  东北地区  玉米  最大熵模型  综合危险性评估
英文关键词:Northeast China  Maize  Maximum entropy model  Comprehensive risk assessment
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目(41330531)、江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX13_497)。
作者单位E-mail
杨若子 中国气象科学研究院, 北京, 100081
南京信息工程大学, 南京, 210044 
 
周广胜 中国气象科学研究院, 北京, 100081 gszhou@cams.cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      东北三省是中国玉米主产区之一,也是“东北玉米带”的重要组成部分。气候变化背景下东北三省农业气象灾害的高发、频发已经严重地威胁到该地区玉米的生产安全,迫切需要弄清玉米主要农业气象灾害的综合危险性,为玉米防灾、减灾措施的制定提供依据。基于1981—2010年东北三省气象数据,结合最大熵模型对东北三省玉米主要农业气象灾害(低温、干旱和洪涝)综合危险性进行了评估。结果表明,低温冷害对玉米主要农业气象灾害综合危险性的贡献率随时间成减少趋势,旱灾对玉米主要农业气象灾害综合危险性的贡献率则随时间成增加趋势,洪涝灾害对玉米主要农业气象灾害综合危险性的贡献率随时间呈先减小后增加趋势。1981—2010年各农业气象灾害对玉米主要农业气象灾害综合危险性的平均贡献表现为低温冷害> 干旱> 洪涝。东北三省玉米主要农业气象灾害危险性由北向南成减小趋势,其高值区主要位于东北三省的东北部大兴安岭地区。黑龙江省的低温冷害和洪涝灾害危险性较大,而吉林和辽宁省沿海地区气候条件较好,玉米生产受农业气象灾害影响较小。1981—2010年东北三省玉米3种主要农业气象灾害综合危险性高值区随时间变化成减小趋势,低值区随时间变化成增加趋势。同时,基于最大熵模型构建了东北三省玉米3种主要农业气象灾害综合危险性评估模型,其ROC(Receiver operating characteristic curve)下的面积达0.823,表明该模型可以很好地模拟东北三省灾害综合危险性分布。
英文摘要:
      The three provinces of northeastern China is one of the main maize producing areas in China, and they are also the important provinces consisting of the “northeast maize belt”. The frequent occurrence of maize agro-meteorological disasters in the three provinces of Northeast China under the background of the climate change has seriously threatened the safety in maize production. It is urgent to clarify the risk of main maize agro-meteorological disasters, in order to provide the policy-makers with the reference for copying with the disaster prevention and reduction. The comprehensive risk assessment of main maize agro-meteorological disasters (including chilling disaster, drought disaster and flood and waterlogged disaster) was presented by using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model in terms of the meteorological data in the three provinces of Northeast China during 1981-2010.The results indicated that the contribution rate of chilling disaster to the comprehensive risk showed decreasing tendency, the contribution rate of drought disaster showed increasing tendency, and the contribution rate of flood and waterlogged disaster presented decreasing tendency before 1991-2000 and increasing tendency after 1991-2000. The average contribution rate of disasters to the comprehensive risk ranged as chilling disaster > drought disaster > flood and waterlogged disaster during 1981-2010. The risk of main maize agro-meteorological disasters decreased from the north to the south, and its high value areas were located at the Greater Khingan Mountains in the three provinces of northeast China.The risks of chilling disaster and flood and waterlogged disaster were the highest in Heilongjiang Province, while they were the lowest in the coastal areas of Jilin Province and Liaoning Province.From 1981 to 2010, the high value areas of the three maize agro-meteorological disaster risks showed obviously decreasing tendency and the low value areas showed significantly increasing tendency.Based on the MaxEnt model, the comprehensive risk assessment model of main maize agro-meteorological disasters was developed for the three provinces of northeast China.The value of area under the curve used for evaluating the simulation accuracy of the developed model reached about 0.823, indicating that the developed model was able to give the better simulation of the comprehensive risk of the main maize agro-meteorological disasters. The comprehensive risk assessment model considered the interactions among a variety of the main agro-meteorological disasters, and it therefore was suitable for giving the comprehensive risk assessment of agro-meteorological disasters for the other crops.
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