马旭林,于月明,陈德辉. 2015. 适应性观测研究现状和展望[J]. 气象学报, 73(2):221-235, doi:10.11676/qxxb2015.022
适应性观测研究现状和展望
The present situation and prospects of the adaptive observation
投稿时间:2014-03-13  修订日期:2014-12-02
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2015.022
中文关键词:  数值预报  资料同化  适应性观测  观测敏感区
英文关键词:Numerical weather prediction  Data assimilation  Adaptive observation  Sensitive area
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41275111、41105057)、重大研究计划培育项目(91437113)、科技部公益行业(气象)专项(GYHY201106050)、江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)。
作者单位E-mail
马旭林 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/南京信息工程大学, 南京, 210044  
于月明 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/南京信息工程大学, 南京, 210044  
陈德辉 国家气象中心, 北京, 100081 chendh@cma.gov.cn 
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中文摘要:
      适应性观测是指为了有针对性地提高高影响天气数值预报的质量,在已有观测系统基础上对特定敏感区域/特定时段进行补充性加强观测。十多年来,这种旨在提高数值预报质量的新策略在国际上引起高度重视,成功开展了多个系列外场观测试验,并在适应性观测敏感区识别方法的发展和适应性观测资料同化后对数值预报质量影响的定量评估等方面均取得了重要的研究成果。文中简述了适应性观测问题及其目的,着重分析和总结了目标敏感区识别方法及其特点和适应性观测对数值预报质量的影响等方面的研究进展,并讨论了适应性观测资料改进未来数值预报质量需要解决的关键科学问题。
英文摘要:
      The adaptive observation refers to those effective supplement observations in a sensitive area/duration to the regular observing network, which, through data assimilation, optimally improves forecasts of high-impact weather events of importance to society in a specified region. This new strategy is aimed at improving the skill of the numerical weather prediction has been paid great attention in the world in the past decade. A number of field observation experiments have been carried out successfully. Many research works on the adaptive observation strategies have been conducted to identify sensitive areas and quantitatively evaluate the impact of targeted observation assimilation on numerical weather predictions. In this paper, after a brief introduction of the objectives of targeted observations, the progress on the various methods to identify sensitive areas and the impact of targeting observations on the skill of numerical weather prediction is reviewed, and some key scientific issues for the use of targeted observations in the future to maximize the positive impact on forecasts are also discussed.
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