刘舸,赵平,董才桂. 2013. 亚洲-太平洋涛动与中国南方地区1月降水异常的关系[J]. 气象学报, 71(3):462-475, doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.048
亚洲-太平洋涛动与中国南方地区1月降水异常的关系
The relationship between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and January precipitation anomalies over southern China
投稿时间:2012-05-29  修订日期:2013-01-26
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2013.048
中文关键词:  亚洲-太平洋涛动  降水预测  海陆热力差异  中国南方  冬季
英文关键词:Asian-Pacific Oscillation(APO)  Precipitation forecast  Land-sea thermal contrast  Southern China  Winter
基金项目:国家自然科学基金创新群体基金(40921003);国家国际合作专项(2011DFG23450);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB428606);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2010Z001,2010Z003);气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2011Z08).
作者单位E-mail
刘舸 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京, 100081  
赵平 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京, 100081 zhaoping@cams.cma.gov.cn 
董才桂 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京, 100081
中国科学院大学, 北京, 100049 
 
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中文摘要:
      利用NCEP、ERA-40再分析资料和中国160个观测站逐月降水资料,分析了同期和前期亚洲-太平洋涛动(APO)与中国南方地区冬季1月降水异常的关系,并讨论了相应的联系机制.研究发现,1月亚洲-太平洋涛动指数能够很好地反映同期中国南方地区降水异常.亚洲-太平洋涛动的异常变化可能影响对流层低层位势高度场,进而通过影响亚洲中、低纬度地区的对流层低层风场与中国南方地区降水紧密联系.当亚洲-太平洋涛动指数偏低(高)时,对应在东亚南部及其邻近海域对流层低层位势高度偏高(低),东太平洋位势高度偏低(高).相应地,南海以及华南沿海地区为异常西南(东北)风控制,且该异常风向北逐渐减弱,进而在中国南方地区辐合(辐散),这既有(不)利于暖湿气流向中国南方地区输送,同时也造成了该地区的水汽辐合(辐散),从而导致降水偏多(少).亚洲-太平洋涛动具有很好的持续性,上一年10月亚洲-太平洋涛动异常可一直持续至当年1月,表现出连续的显着相关特征.因此,其与中国南方地区1月降水异常也具有显着联系,可以作为指示1月中国南方地区降水多寡的一个前兆因子.
英文摘要:
      Using the NCEP,ERA-40 rcanalysis datasets and the monthly precipitation data from the 160 stations of China, the relationship between the January precipitation anomaly over southern China and the simultaneous Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO),as well as the previous APO, is investigated,and the associated mechanism for the relationship is also discussed.The results show that the January APO index can reflect well the simultaneously anomalous precipitation over southern China.The variability of APO may lead to the anomalous gcopotential height at the lower troposphere and be then closely related to the anomalous precipitation over southern China through affecting the lower-tropospheric winds at the lower latitudes.Corresponding to lower (higher) APO index, the lower-tropospheric gcopotential height is higher (lower) over the southern part of East Asia and its adjacent oceans and is lower(higher) over the eastern Pacific.Accordingly, the southwesterly(northeasterly) winds prevail over the South China Sea and the coast of South China, and they gradually weaken from the South China Sea to southern China, which result in a convergence (divergence) over southern China.Consequently, the southwesterly (northcasterly) winds may lead to more (less) warm and humid air transportation into southern China and the associated vapor convergenec (divergence),and eventually give rise to more(less) precipitation over southern China.The APO has a good persistenec.Specifically, the anomalous signal of the October APO can persist until the following January, accompanying with continuous high corrclations between the October APO index and that in the following months until January.Therefore, the previous October APO index has a significant relationship with the following January precipitation over southern China, and can be considered as an important precursory factor.
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