满文敏,周天军,张洁,吴波. 2011. 气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的20世纪气温变化[J]. 气象学报, 69(4):644-654, doi:10.11676/qxxb2011.056
气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的20世纪气温变化
The temperature evolution during the 20th century as simulated by the climate system model FGOALS-gl
投稿时间:2009-07-29  修订日期:2009-09-27
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2011.056
中文关键词:  气候系统模式, 20世纪气温变化,模式评估
英文关键词:Coupled general circulation model, 20th century air temperature evolution, Model evaluation
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(40890054、40675050、40821092)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706010、GYHY200806010)
作者单位
满文敏 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)北京, 100029
中国科学院研究生院北京,100049 
周天军 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)北京,100029 
张洁 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)北京 100029
中国科学院研究生院北京,100049 
吴波 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)北京,100029
中国科学院研究生院北京,100049 
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中文摘要:
      分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的快速耦合气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对近100年气温变化的模拟,讨论了20世纪气温变化的机理。结果表明,在自然因素和人为因素的共同强迫作用下,FGOALS_gl能够合理再现20世纪全球平均和纬向平均地表气温随时间的演变。利用太阳辐照度等自然强迫、温室气体和气溶胶等人为强迫因子来驱动耦合模式,能够模拟出过去100年全球平均气温的增温趋势和年代际变化。耦合模式可以较好地模拟出20世纪全球气温变化趋势的空间分布。对区域气温变化模拟效果的分析表明,除北大西洋外,FGOALS_gl对其他地区具有较高的模拟技巧,表明外强迫是造成多数地区气温变化的主要原因。FGOALS_gl的主要缺陷在于模拟的变暖强度偏弱,大气模式自身的偏差以及耦合模式对温室气体响应的敏感度偏低是造成上述缺陷的主要原因。总体而言,FGOALS_gl对20世纪气温变化的模拟效果较为理想,特别是在全球、半球和大陆尺度上,该模式对过去100年气温变化的模拟较为合理。
英文摘要:
      The performance of the fast version of the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model named FGOALS_gl in simulating the 20th century air temperature evolution is evaluated and the mechanisms responsible for the evolution are discussed. The overall warming trend and its zonal distribution simulated by the FGOALS_gl is in a good agreement with the observation. Under the natural forcings, such as the solar radiation and volcanic activities, and the anthropogenic forcings, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, the FGOALS_gl model reasonably simulates the warming trend of the global mean temperature and its decadal variability. Moreover, the FGOALS_gl reproduces the major local warming characteristics over most of the world, expect for the North Atlantic, suggesting that the external forcings significantly contribute to the temperature evolution over most of the world. The main deficiency of the model is that the simulated global warming trend is weaker than the observation. It may be associated with low model sensitivity to the specified greenhouse gases forcing. Generally speaking, the FGOALS_gl model can reasonably reproduce the main characteristics of the 20th century temperature evolution, especially on the global, hemispheric, and continental scale.
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