孙丞虎 ,李维京, 张祖强, 何金海 ,张兴强 . 2005. 淮河流域冬春季土壤温湿度异常对夏季降水的影响及其应用的研究[J]. 气象学报, 63(1):115-122, doi:10.11676/qxxb2005.012
淮河流域冬春季土壤温湿度异常对夏季降水的影响及其应用的研究
IMPACT OF HUAIHE RIVER BASIN SOIL TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITYABNORMALITY IN PRE WINTER AND SPRINGTIME ON THE ANOMALOUS SUMMER RAINFALL AND ITS APPLICATION
投稿时间:2004-02-19  修订日期:2004-06-07
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2005.012
中文关键词:  降水异常,土壤湿度,土壤温度,动力与统计相结合
英文关键词:Precipitation anomaly, Soil humidity, Soil temperature, Dynamical approach, Statistic approach.
基金项目:国家自然基金(40375025),2002年科技部基础研究重大项目前期研究专项“淮河地区地表状况和大气边界层对汛期降水异常影响的观测研究”和国家自然基金(90211010)
作者单位
孙丞虎 南京信息工程大学大气科学系南京210044
中国气象科学研究院,北京, 100081 
李维京 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室国家气候中心北京100081 
张祖强 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室国家气候中心北京100081 
何金海 南京信息工程大学大气科学系南京210044 
张兴强 山东省泰安市气象局泰安271000 
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中文摘要:
      夏季降水异常与前期环流、下垫面异常有密切的关系,文中重点研究了淮河流域前期下垫土壤温、湿度异常对夏季降水的影响。提出了一种动力与统计相结合寻找影响降水的因子的方法,通过将大气中的热量、水汽收支方程与一个简化的两层土壤温度、湿度方程相结合,并依据月尺度大气环流的演变特征,推导出月降水距平与500 hPa月平均高度距平场、土壤深浅两层温、湿度的关系;并利用台站观测资料,使用统计反演方法确定方程中各项的系数和量级,从而找出影响降水的主要土壤温、湿度因子;利用统计方法建立这些因子与淮河流域夏季降水异常之间的简单线性预报方程,并对1982~2000年淮河流域夏季降水趋势进行回报,结果表明:对淮河流域夏季降水趋势的预测有很好的效果,且更加明确了土壤温、湿度因子与降水异常之间的动力学联系。
英文摘要:
      Since the summer rainfall abnormality has close relationship with both the soil moisture and temperature abnormality. We study the impact of pre-wintertime and springtime soil moisture and temperature on the summer rainfall over Huaihe river basin. In this paper, we present a blending method of dynamical and statistical approach to choose the attributing factors that may effect the precipitation.The approach has established a relationship between monthly precipitation abnormality and monthly circulation, soil moisture and temperature on the shallow and deep layers. The relationship is the precipitation diagnostic equation and its coefficients and dimensions are determined by using the observed data of Huaihe river basin. Then we select the mainly soil moisture and temperature attributing factors by the dimensional analysis to establish a forecasting equation of summer precipitation over Huaihe river basin with the statistic approach. The results indicate that those soil factors, which are selected by the blending method of dynamical and statistical approaches, are useful for forecasting monthly summer precipitation and can expressly discover their dynamical relationships. 
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