孙林海,何敏. 2004. 欧亚环流异常对中国夏季降水的影响及其预测研究[J]. 气象学报, 62(3):355-364, doi:10.11676/qxxb2004.036
欧亚环流异常对中国夏季降水的影响及其预测研究
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA AND CIRCULATION ANOMALY IN EUROASIA AND ITS APPLICATION IN PRECIPITATION PREDICTION
投稿时间:2003-01-10  修订日期:2003-10-15
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2004.036
中文关键词:  500hPa环流  奇异值分解  夏季降水趋势预测
英文关键词:SVD  500 hPa circulation  Precipitation prediction
基金项目:中国气象局2004年气候变化专项经费;国家气象中心自筹基金课题“影响汛期降水因素的物理集成技术方法研究”
作者单位
孙林海 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
何敏 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 
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中文摘要:
      文中利用奇异值分解(SVD)方法,分析了500hPa环流与中国降水的耦合作用。结果表明,夏季高度场和降水场相互的空间分布与大气环流的遥相关型紧密联系,所对应的时间系数对夏季旱涝趋势有较好的表征能力。冬、春季高度场和夏季降水场的相互关系显示出与夏季相类似的遥相关分布型。利用高度场与降水场奇异值分解的结果及前期环流异常信息,可以为夏季降水趋势预测提供参考。
英文摘要:
      Coupling action between 500 hPa height field and summer precipitation distribution in China has been analysed by SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) method. The following results are revealed. (1) The coupling between summer 500 hPa height field and precipitation distribution is associated with the teleconnection of atmospheric circulation. The first pattern of the coupling shows spatial distribution reflecting the characters of the EPA and EU pattern of atmospheric circulation and the precipitation distribution. High correlation areas are mostly associated with atmospheric activity centers. When blocking high is located in north eastern Asia, the western Pacific subtropical high is stronger than normal with its position to further south of the normal, the meridian circulation prevails in middle and high latitudes, the major rain belt is located in southern China, severe flooding appear more frequently in the Yangtze river basin. In the opposite situation, precipitation in the Yangtze River basin is below normal or even drought. (2) The precipitation time coefficient of the coupling action can at describe well drought and flooding distribution, especially at distinguishing rain belt patterns (north or south). This precipitation time coefficient may reflect decade variability of summer precipitation pattern in China. (3) The analysis to the coupling between the 500 hPa circulation characteristics in winter, spring seasons and the summer precipitation distribution shows that from previous winter present to summer, the coupling characteristics between 500 hPa height field and precipitation distribution have persistence. Previous circulation influences summer precipitation distribution through rhythm relationship and thermodynamic condition contrast between land and ocean. (4) With the results from SVD analysis and previous circulation anomaly, a forecast model for summer precipitation in China is established. The prediction experiment shows a certain capability.
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