陈伯民,纪立人,杨培才,张道民. 2004. 与非线性区域预测方法结合的月延伸预报试验Ⅰ:纬向平均环流的预报[J]. 气象学报, 62(1):1-10, doi:10.11676/qxxb2004.001
与非线性区域预测方法结合的月延伸预报试验Ⅰ:纬向平均环流的预报
MONTHLY EXTENDED PREDICTING EXPERIMENTS WITH NON-LINEAR REGIO NAL PREDICTION Ⅰ: PREDICTION OF ZONAL MEAN FLOW
投稿时间:2002-07-22  修订日期:2003-06-25
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2004.001
中文关键词:  月延伸预报  纬向平均环流  持续性预报  气候预报  非线性区域预报  事后订正
英文关键词:Dynamical extended prediction  zonal flow  persistent prediction  climatic prediction  nonlinear regional prediction  correction
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(40175013);中国科学院项目(ZKCX2SW210);国家“九五”科技攻关96908项目0201
作者单位
陈伯民 上海市气象科学研究所, 上海, 200030
中国科学院大气物理研究所, LASG, 北京, 100029 
纪立人 中国科学院大气物理研究所, LASG, 北京, 100029 
杨培才 中国科学院大气物理研究所, LASG, 北京, 100029 
张道民 中国科学院大气物理研究所, LASG, 北京, 100029 
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中文摘要:
      为克服数值模式普遍存在的纬向平均环流预报误差,文中在36aNCEP/NCAR再分析高度场资料的基础上,应用非线性时空序列预测理论的局域近似法构建了200,300,500和700hPa4个等压面上的月尺度逐候纬向平均高度距平场非线性动力学区域预报模型。对1996年12个月所做的预报试验表明,无论是南、北半球中高纬度地区还是低纬度地区,非线性模型的候纬向平均高度预报结果均优于持续性预报、气候预报和T42L9模式动力预报。用非线性结果对T42L9模式月平均高度场预报结果进行订正,则使该谱模式系统性预报误差显著减少,也大大减少了其预报高度场的均方根误差,相应地,高度场距平相关评分也有一定程度的提高,表明纬向平均高度的非线性预报比谱模式动力预报包含了更多的有用信息。
英文摘要:
      Systematic errors have recently been founded to be distinctin the zonal mean component forecasts,which account for a large portion of the total monthly-mean forecasterrors.To overcome the difficulty of numerical model,the monthly pentad-mean nonlinear dynamic regional prediction models of the zonal mean geopotential heightat 200,300,500 and 700 hPa based on a large number of historical data(NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data) were constituted by employing the local approximation of the phase space reconstruction theory and nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method.the 12-month forecastexperiments of 1996 indicated that the results of the nonlinear model are better than those of persistent,climatic prediction and T42L9 model either over the high-and mid-latitude areas of the northern and southern hemisphere or over the tropical area.the monthly-mean heightroo-tmean-square of T42L9 model was considerably decreased with a change of 30.4%,26.6%, 82.6% and 39.4% respectively over the high-and mid-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere,over the high-and mid-latitude of the Southern Hemisphere,over the tropics and over the Globe respectively,the corresponding anormaly correlation coefficients over the four areas were respectively increased from 0.306 to 0.312,from 0.304 to 0.429,0,739 to 0.746 and from 0.360 to 0.400(averagely a relative change of 11.0% over the Globe) by nonlinear correction after integration.Itimplys that the forecasts given by nonlinear model includes more useful information than those of T42L9 model.
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