陈静,薛纪善,颜宏. 2003. 物理过程参数化方案对中尺度暴雨数值模拟影响的研究[J]. 气象学报, 61(2):203-218, doi:10.11676/qxxb2003.019
物理过程参数化方案对中尺度暴雨数值模拟影响的研究
THE IMPACT OF PHYSICS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES ON MESOSCALE HEAVY RAINFALL SIMULATION
投稿时间:2002-07-22  修订日期:2002-11-11
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2003.019
中文关键词:  暴雨  数值预报  物理过程参数化方案  集合预报
英文关键词:H eavy rain  Numerical prediction  Non-adiabatic physics  Ensemble prediction
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(40175028)
作者单位
陈静  
薛纪善  
颜宏  
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中文摘要:
      利用中尺度非静力MM5模式和中国2001年8月的4个暴雨个例,研究了非绝热物理过程对中国暴雨动力和热力场预报的影响,深入分析了对流参数化方案在中尺度暴雨预报中的作用,讨论了利用模式扰动方法开展中国暴雨集合预报的可行性。结果表明,在短期数值预报中,非绝热物理过程对高度场预报影响较小,但边界层方案和对流参数化方案对产生暴雨的3个基本条件即水汽通量散度、垂直速度、不稳定层结的影响很明显。不同对流参数化方案所预报的中尺度热力、动力场离差的结构特征与所预报降水的离差特征相似,且主要是在模式积分初期迅速增加,其后即趋于稳定。对中国热力场较均匀的暴雨过程,可以通过扰动模式的边界层和对流参数化方案,构造集合预报模式。
英文摘要:
      Based on the non-hydrostatic version of Mesoscale Model version 5(MM5) and the data sets of four heavy rainfall scenarios occurring in Aug.2001 in China, the impacts of three non-adiabatic physic processes including cumulus parameterization scheme, planetary boundary layer schemes and radiation paramet erization schemes on dynamic and thermodynamic element predictions of heavy rain in China are investigated, with deeply analyzing the effect of cumulus paramet erization schemes on mesoscale heavy rain simulations and discussing the feasibility of using model physics perturbations in ensemble simulation of heavy rain.The results show that non-adiabatic physic processes have less ef fects on the short-range forecast of geopotential height.Planetary boundary layer schemes and cumulus convection schemes have more impacts on heavy rain than radiation schemes, the most influences of two schemes of planetary boundary layer and cumulus convection are on the divergence of moisture flux, vertical velocity, unstable strat ification, which are the three basic conditions of torrential rain.The great influence of planetary boundary layer is on the thermal fields in the low levels.The forecast variance between convection schemes grows fast in the beginning to 12-h time periods of simulation, with the variance structure being a good correlation to that of subgrid rain, in the later periods of simulation with less correlation and decrease during 12-18h time periods, then oscillates in the subsequent integral period.The structures of dynamic and thermal fields and the initial field using for model integral are all different since 12-h.
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