张永勤,缪启龙. 2001. 气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型研究[J]. 气象学报, 59(5):633-640, doi:10.11676/qxxb2001.067
气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型研究
RESEARCH ON INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON REGIONAL ECONOMY
投稿时间:2000-02-29  修订日期:2000-10-18
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2001.067
中文关键词:  气候变化  投入-产出  工业产值  农业产值  总产出
英文关键词:Climate change  Input-output  Industry product  Agriculture product  Total output
基金项目:国家环保总局科技发展项目(A-95301);加拿大GPIPP;香港基金委员会项目(RGC Grant97/98Code:338/005/0007
作者单位
张永勤 南京大学城市与资源学系 南京 210093 
缪启龙 南京气象学院环境科学系 南京 210044 
摘要点击次数: 2325
全文下载次数: 2786
中文摘要:
      利用经济学“投入-产出”分析方法的基本原理,结合气候变化对工业影响的统计模型、对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统,建立了气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型。研究了当气候变化对工业、农业部门的生产和产品发生影响时,导致的对国民经济其他部门的拉动需求量和各个部门间的投入-产出流量的变化,从而预测各个部门的国内生产总值和总产出量,对2010,2020年的经济发展。综合分析气候变化对各部门的影响,找出适应区域经济平衡发展的适应对策,为决策者提供一些参考建议。
英文摘要:
      Using basic theory of economic input-output analysis, sets up an input-output mathematical model to explore the impact of climate change on regional economy. This model combines with the models of climate change on agriculture and industry products.The research provides such a framework for climate impact analysis that can reflect the interactions among different sectors. individual and whole economic sectors. It can illustrate the nature of interrelationships among these economic sectors and between regions,also it incorporates climate change factors into the economic input-output analysis. With regard to natural and social status and economy developing scale and speed, the structure and proportion of the future first, second, third property, coefficients of the model are adjusted, the economic development in 2010.2020 is predicted considering various impacts associated with climate change on agriculture and industry. Then we propose some adaptation countermeasures of climate change to the decision-making department for future developing policy.
HTML   查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
分享按钮