山西省气候预报研究课题组. 1999. 一个考虑SST变化的月数值预报结果分析[J]. 气象学报, 57(2):168-179, doi:10.11676/qxxb1999.015
一个考虑SST变化的月数值预报结果分析
AN ANALYSIS ON ONE MONTH NUMERICAL PRODICTION WITH CONSIDERING SST
投稿时间:1997-06-27  修订日期:1997-07-22
DOI:10.11676/qxxb1999.015
中文关键词:  动力气候模式  月数值预报  SST变化
英文关键词:Dynamic climate model  Monthly numerical prediction  Change of SST
基金项目:
作者单位
山西省气候预报研究课题组 山西省气象科学研究所, 太原, 030002 
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中文摘要:
      根据陈隆勋等对海温月季变化研究的结果提出除了从冬到春的过渡月份外,SST距平的相邻月的月际变化不大。在此基础上,选了1996年6月并利用CCM1动力气候模式作了月数值预报。在预报中,利用1996年6月1日00Z中国国家气象中心T64的客观分析资料作初值,利用1996年5月的SST距平加到6月气候SST作为6月的SST,作了一个月数值预报。结果表明,考虑了SST变化的数值预报优于用气候海温作的数值预报。前者的500hPa高度场预报距平、850hPa纬向风预报距平、中国地区气温预报距平和降水预报距平分布均十分接近于实际观测分布。
英文摘要:
      Based on a result that the variation of SSTA between the adjcent month is small, an one-month numerical predication of June, 1996 is calculated by using CCM1/NCAR climate model. In the prediction, the initial value is taken from the objective analy sics of T64 grid system of China National Meteorological Center for 00Z the first of June, 1996. The SST distribution of June, 1996 is computed from June climate SST adding the SS-TA of May, 1996. For comparison, an one-month prediction using the climate June SST is also calculated. It is shown that the prediction results of changed SST are greatly better than that using the climate SST. In the formercase, the predicted deviation of the 500 hPa geopo tential height in Norther Hemisphere, the zonal wind velocity at 850 hP a, the predicted devation of surface air temperature and the predicten percentage of rainf all deviation are quite same as that of observed.
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