叶更新. 1998. 厄尔尼诺与行星运动的联系及其预测[J]. 气象学报, 56(5):635-640, doi:10.11676/qxxb1998.059
厄尔尼诺与行星运动的联系及其预测
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EL NIO AND THE PLANETARY MOTION AND THE PRE DICTION OF EL NIO EVENTS
投稿时间:1997-01-27  修订日期:1997-11-02
DOI:10.11676/qxxb1998.059
中文关键词:  厄尔尼诺  行星运动  日心黄纬
英文关键词:El Ninñ  o  Planetary motion  Heliocentric celestial latitude
基金项目:
作者单位
叶更新 吉林省通化市气象局, 通化, 134001 
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中文摘要:
      计算了1950~2050年太阳系各大行星运行轨道及冲日时间,将计算结果与厄尔尼诺年进行比较分析,发现厄尔尼诺事件的发生与行星运动有重要的联系:在1950~1989年期间,所有的厄尔尼诺事件都发生在四大行星(火、木、土、天王星)冲日时日心黄纬的极值年或极值年的下1年,在其它年份则不发生厄尔尼诺现象。大行星在3月冲日和8月冲日,对厄尔尼诺事件的发生非常有利。从这一事实出发,预测了今后50a厄尔尼诺将要发生的年份。
英文摘要:
      The planetary orbits in solar system and opposition times are calculated for 1950~2050. By cases analyzing between El Ninño and the planetary motion during 1951~1989, a relationship has been constructed that all El Ninño events occurrded in current years or in next years when the four planets(Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus) were opposite to sun at the extreme value of heliocentric celestial latitude. Moreover, the El Ninño events are easily to occure if the opposition appeared in March and Augest. According to these facts, El Ninño events in future 50 years have been predicted.
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