张绍晴,刘还珠,吴国雄,杨云峰. 1996. NWP模式中纬向平均环流系统误差的动力诊断[J]. 气象学报, 54(5):569-579, doi:10.11676/qxxb1996.059
NWP模式中纬向平均环流系统误差的动力诊断
DIAGNOSIS OF NWP SYSTEMATIC FORECAST ERRORS IN ZONAL WIND
投稿时间:1993-03-03  修订日期:1994-02-01
DOI:10.11676/qxxb1996.059
中文关键词:  西风加速  无加速定理  NWP模式  系统误差
英文关键词:Westerly acceleration  Non-acceration theorem  NWP model  Model systematic errors
基金项目:
作者单位
张绍晴 国家气象中心, 北京, 100081 
刘还珠 国家气象中心, 北京, 100081 
吴国雄 中国科学院大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG), 北京, 100029 
杨云峰 国家气象中心, 北京, 100081 
摘要点击次数: 1969
全文下载次数: 1966
中文摘要:
      证明了模式在预报时段的纬向平均环流误差,是由于在预报时段内模式大气和真实大气中西风加速过程的不同造成的。又由于原始方程的无加速定理中各强迫因子具有良好的线性迭加性,因此能够清楚地将造成模式系统误差的动力因子分解开来。通过对T42L9模式的分析,说明原始方程的无加速定理可以作为分析模式系统误差的良好手段。动力诊断分析结果表明,模式对纬向平均环流分布具有较好的预报能力,但在各缔带也存在明显的误差。通过无加速定理的分解分析,本文研究了这些误差的成因及改善模式的可能途径。
英文摘要:
      It is proved in this paper that NWP systematic forecast errors in zonal mean circulation are due to the difference in westerly acceleration process during the forecasting period between the model and real atmospheres.Those forcing factors which evoke the zonal wind variation can be split into various linear terms according to the non-acceleration theorem in a primitive equation system. By applying this scheme to diagnosis of the forecast products of the T42L9 model,it is indicated that the model has the ability of forecast the zonal mean wind to a reasonable existent,but there are still some errors in several places. The results of analysis by employing this scheme show the reason responsible for the systematic forecast errors of the zonal mean wind in the model and the possible way of improving it.And it is also shown that non-acceleration theorem can be used as an efficient tool to diagnose the physical processes of NWP models.
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