郜吉东,丑纪范. 1995. 数值模式初值的敏感性程度对四维同化的影响[J]. 气象学报, 53(4):471-479, doi:10.11676/qxxb1995.053
数值模式初值的敏感性程度对四维同化的影响
THE EFFECTS OF THE MODEL SENSITIVITY TO INITIAL CONDITION UPON THE VARIATIONAL FOUR-DIENSIONAL ASSIMILATION——THE STUDY BASED ON LORENZ MODEL
投稿时间:1993-07-31  修订日期:1994-07-12
DOI:10.11676/qxxb1995.053
中文关键词:  变分同化  Lorenz系统  共轭方程
英文关键词:Variational assimilation  Lorenz model  Adjoint equation
基金项目:国家青年自然科学基金,教委高等学校博士点专项科研基金
作者单位
郜吉东 兰州大学大气科学系, 兰州, 730000 
丑纪范 兰州大学大气科学系, 兰州, 730000 
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中文摘要:
      用着名的Lorenz系统作了共轭变分同化的数值试验.发现随着模式对初值敏感性程度的增加,用这种方法得到和模式相协调的初始场愈来愈困难,直到某些情况下的完全失败.这表明四维同化和可预报期限是联系在一起的.另一方面,随着方程不精确程度的增加,变分同化的效果愈来愈差,直到所做的预报无任何意义可言.如果在做变分同化的同时对模式参数也进行反演,就可使得基于Lorenz系统所做的预报效果大大提高.
英文摘要:
      In this paper,some numerical experiments of adjoint,ariational assimilation has been performed using the famous Lorenz model.With the increase of medel sensitivity to initial condition,finding the initial values which harmonize with the Lorenzmodel become more and more difficult until the scheme is failure on some situation.This shows that the four-dimensional assimilation have some relation with predictability.On the other hand,with the increase of errors in the Lorenz model,the effects of variational assimilation become worse and worse until the forcasting has no meaning.If we perform variational assimilation and retrieve the model parameters at the same time,The consequene of forcasting can improve greatly based on Lorenz model.
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