严中伟. 1995. 华北旱涝变化的混沌性质分析[J]. 气象学报, 53(2):232-237, doi:10.11676/qxxb1995.027
华北旱涝变化的混沌性质分析
SOME CHAOTIC FEATURES OF THE WET/DRY FLUCTUATIONS IN NORTH CHINA
投稿时间:1993-04-27  修订日期:1993-08-01
DOI:10.11676/qxxb1995.027
中文关键词:  历史气候  混沌  分数维  可预报性
英文关键词:Historical climate  Chaos  Fractal dimension  Predictability
基金项目:国家科委攀登85-27;国家自然基金
作者单位
严中伟 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京, 100029 
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中文摘要:
      利用华北海河流域近700多年的旱涝等级序列,从功率谱特点、吸引子分数维和可预报时间等方面分析了历史旱涝变化的混沌性质。由专门设计的误差控制计算方案得到的旱涝变化分数维大于4.只有经过大平滑处理,旱涝序列的分数维才能显着地降至3.5.通过分析系统的局部Kolmogorov熵,发现偏早态和偏涝态的可预报时间基本相同,即约4a.但经平滑处理后偏涝态的可预报性改善较多,说明从较长时间尺度看,干旱期的旱涝预报比之湿润期要更困难些。
英文摘要:
      Based on the historical wet/dry grade series of North China, back to 1261 AD, some nonlinear features of the regional wet/dry fluctuations are analyzed. The spectral structure of the wet/dry system is quite similar to that of the chaotic model such as the Lorenz's. A special error-controlled method is designed to calculate the attractor's dimension, which is then estimated as a fractal one larger than 4. The smoothed series that mainly represents the 102-year-scale fluctuations tends to have a smaller dimension about 3. 5. The local Kolmogorov entropy is analyzed and a 4-year-predictable time is estimated for the wet/dry fluctuations. The K-entropy of the smoothed series is small, but that for those ‘drier' phasepoints seems much smaller. This implies that at the long time-scale, the climate prediction in the drier period is more difficult than that in the wetter one.
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