王绍武,王日昇. 1990. 1470年以来我国华东四季与年平均气温变化的研究[J]. 气象学报, 48(1):26-35, doi:10.11676/qxxb1990.004
1470年以来我国华东四季与年平均气温变化的研究
VARIATIONS OF SEASONAL AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURES DURING 1470-1979 AD IN EASTERN CHINA
投稿时间:1989-06-14  修订日期:1989-09-25
DOI:10.11676/qxxb1990.004
中文关键词:  
英文关键词:
基金项目:
作者单位
王绍武 北京大学地球物理系 
王日昇 北京大学地球物理系 
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中文摘要:
      本文根据历史记载恢复了1470年以来我国华东(长江中下游地区)春、夏、秋,冬四季的10年平均气温距平。首先利用近35年(1951-1985年)气温观测对不同强度寒冷事件的气温距平做出估计,然后按事件发生频率定出五百年来每10年寒冷指数,最后转换为对近百年平均气温的偏差。结果表明,过去五百年中,前四百年比近一百年显著偏冷,各季百年平均气温均为负距平,变化于-0.1℃到-0.7℃之间,10年平均气温虽有正距平,但负距平占绝对优势,达到-1.0℃的10年以冬、春为最多,最大负距平(-2.0℃左右)出现在冬季,个别10年(如1650's及1840's)年平均气温距平亦达到-1.0℃。分析表明,在小冰河期不但气温平均值下降,气温变化幅度(方差)也增加,春、秋两季最为明显。
英文摘要:
      The ten-year anomalies of seasonal temperature were reconstructed on the basis of historical documents of cold events such as severe snowing and freezing of lakes and rivers. Assorted events were calibrated with the modern observations and translated to the temperature anomalies. The reconstructed temperature series show the predominance of cold climate in the first four hundred year of the period investigated. The centenary seasonal temperature anomalies for 16th to 19th century vary between -0.1℃ to -0.7℃. The cold decades concentrated in spring and winter seasons. The maximum of temperature anomaly (-2℃) observed in winter of 1840 s. The lowest annual anomalies occurred in 1650s and 1840s. The study shows irrefutable arguments of the occurrence of the Little Ice Age in between 1470s and 1890s in China, while the seasonal decade temperature lowered in maximum about 1.5℃ to 2.0℃ in comparing to the twenty century, and the variance increased to about 1.2℃ to 1.5℃.
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