章少卿,李麦村,朱其文. 1987. 几率波在长期季度预报中的应用[J]. 气象学报, 45(1):93-103, doi:10.11676/qxxb1987.012
几率波在长期季度预报中的应用
THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY WAVE IN LONG-RANGE SEASONAL PREDICATION
投稿时间:1983-12-06  修订日期:1986-05-03
DOI:10.11676/qxxb1987.012
中文关键词:  
英文关键词:
基金项目:
作者单位
章少卿 吉林省气象台 
李麦村 中国科学院大气物理研究所 
朱其文 吉林省气象研究所 
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中文摘要:
      本文首先讨论了造成长期异常天气的原因:主要是由于环流的持续稳定。指出月、季距平图上所反映的波动实质上是几率波动,它反映了下垫面冷热源(包括:雪盖、海冰、海温等)的异常分布。从而得出持续稳定的环流造成了下垫面冷热源的异常,而下垫面冷热源的异常分布作为一个持久性的扰动源对大气又起反馈作用,又造成了在某些特定地区环流的持续稳定,这样又形成了后期冷热源异常的再分布。
英文摘要:
      First, it is discussed that the anomaly in long-range weather is due to sustained stable circulation. Waves in monthly or seasonal departure maps can be regarded essentially as probability waves which reflect the anomaly distribution of cold and heat sources on earth surface. The persistent stable circulation creates these distributions which serve as persistent disturbance sources and in turn feedback the general circulation with persistent stability in later period. The departure probability waves in six-month (Sept,-Feb.) charts reflect the abnormal distribution of cold and heat sources on earth's surface which move slowly in north of 30°N and eastward on Eurasian continent in opposition to temperature gradient. But the waves are stationary in south of 30°N. The characteristics of the six-month departure probability waves are used to develop a statistical model to predicate spring-summer temperature and precipitation of next year. It has been tested in several North China provinces for four years with encouraging results.
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