陶祖钰,熊秋芬,郑永光,王洪庆. 2014. 天气学的发展概要——关于锋面气旋学说的四个阶段[J]. 气象学报, 72(5):940-947, doi:10.11676/qxxb2014.060
天气学的发展概要——关于锋面气旋学说的四个阶段
Overview of advances in synoptic meteorology: Four stages of development in conceptual models of frontal cyclones
投稿时间:2014-01-03  修订日期:2014-05-12
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.060
中文关键词:  天气学  锋面气旋  斜压性  准地转动力学  暖锋后弯卷入  数值模拟  视算技术
英文关键词:Synoptic meteorology  Frontal cyclone  Baroclinicity  Guasi-geostrophic dynamics  Back-bent and wrap-up warm front  Numerical simulation  Visualization
基金项目:公益性行业专项(GYHY201306023)、973项目(2013CB430106)。
作者单位
陶祖钰 北京大学物理学院, 北京, 100871 
熊秋芬 中国气象局气象干部培训学院, 北京, 100081 
郑永光 国家气象中心, 北京, 100081 
王洪庆 北京大学物理学院, 北京, 100871 
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中文摘要:
      参照流体力学发展的4个阶段,以锋面气旋模型为例将天气学也分为:“古代”、经典、近代和现代4个发展阶段。“古代”天气学的代表是1863年航海家Fitz-Roy绘制的第一个风暴概念模型,它是对实践经验的总结,但不失其科学性;100年前挪威气象学派锋面气旋模型是基于牛顿力学的经典天气学代表,确立了斜压性是天气变化机理的核心,但将锋面视为物质面是其有悖流体连续性原则的重大缺陷;50年前芝加哥学派的锋面气旋三维模型是基于对准地转动力学理论深刻物理洞察力的近代天气学代表;20世纪末暖锋后弯卷入爆发性气旋模型是高科技时代基于大规模数值计算的现代天气学代表。在大数据时代,现代天气学需要学习和继承近代天气学用深刻的物理洞察力来分析天气学问题。
英文摘要:
      The advance of fluid dynamics may be divided into four stages: ancient, classical, neoteric, and contemporary. A similar four-stage framework can be used to describe the advance of synoptic meteorology, such as the conceptual models of extratropical cyclones and their attendant fronts. The first conceptual model of extratropical cyclones was proposed by Admiral Fitz-Roy in 1863. Based purely on Admiral Fitz-Roy’s personal experience (although it does contain some scientific essentials), this model represents the ancient stage of synoptic meteorology. The Norwegian cyclone model was developed based on Newtonian mechanics about 100 years ago, and represents the classical stage of synoptic meteorology. This model was based on the idea that weather changes are primarily caused by baroclinicity, but contained some serious flaws. In particular, the Norwegian model regarded fronts as zeroth-order discontinuities in density, which was inconsistent with the continuity principle of fluid dynamics. The Chicago three-dimensional conceptual model of fronts and cyclones, which was developed approximately 50 years ago by using quasi-geostrophic theory, can be thought of as representing the neoteric stage of synoptic meteorology. The Chicago model was replaced in the late 20 century by a model of extratropical cyclones characterized by back-bent and wrap-up warm fronts. This model has been developed with massive numerical calculations, and represents the contemporary stage of synoptic meteorology. In the era of large data, contemporary synoptic meteorology should be careful to maintain and make full use of the profound physical understanding generated during the neoteric stage of synoptic meteorology.
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