雷小途,徐明,任福民. 2009. 全球变暖对台风活动影响的研究进展[J]. 气象学报, 67(5):679-688, doi:10.11676/qxxb2009.068
全球变暖对台风活动影响的研究进展
A review on the impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone activities.
投稿时间:2008-10-08  修订日期:2009-02-28
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2009.068
中文关键词:  台风气候, 全球变暖, 影响
英文关键词:Typhoon climate, Global warming, Impact
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展(973计划)项目(2009CB421500)、国家自然科学基金重点课题(40730948)、公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200806009)
作者单位
雷小途 中国气象局上海台风研究所上海200030 
徐明 中国气象局上海台风研究所上海200030 
任福民 国家气候中心北京100081 
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中文摘要:
      全球变暖是当前热点问题之一,各大洋区时有发生的“超乎寻常”的台风活动也广为关注。全球范围内的台风活动特征是否悄然发生了变化?这种变化与全球变暖是否存在关联?这些问题已成为国际台风界的重点研究内容之一,近年来取得了许多进展。文中从全球台风活动特征变化事实的观测研究、成因分析、数值模拟与预测等方面对此进行了概述。综合各方观点,得到主要共识如下:单个台风的异常活动不宜直接归因于气候变化;全球台风频数的年际变化趋势并不明显;沿海地区人口增长和基础设施增加是近期台风对社会影响加重的主要原因;自1970年以来,一些海区的超强台风比例明显增大,比目前数值模式的模拟结果要大许多;如果全球气候持续变暖,台风的最大风速和降水很可能会继续增加;尽管在台风记录中同时有支持和不支持人类活动(全球变暖的影响)信号存在的证据,但在这一点上还不能给出一致的肯定结论。另外,由于台风和相关气候资料存在均一性方面问题,气候数值模式对台风气候特征描述也存在缺陷,这两类问题的存在使得在目前阶段确切阐明全球变暖和台风活动的关系仍有极大的不确定性。
英文摘要:
      Global warming is a hot topic, while the “extraordinary” episodes of global tropical cyclone activities in recent years are also concerned. Most of studies concentrated on two aspects: one is whether the climate character of global typhoon is changed? The other is if this change related to the global warming? An overview on this topic, which includes observational fact, cause analysis, numerical modeling, was given in this paper. Some main consensus can be concluded as: (1) No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change; (2) The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions; (3) The long term trend of frequency change of global tropical cyclone is not obvious; (4) The ratio of super-typhoon over some oceans has increased greatly since 1970, and the figure is much greater than the results of numerical modeling; (5) It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm; (6) Though there is evidence either for or against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point. On the other hand, the two main problems, i.e., the homogeneity and consistency of tropical cyclones and climate data, and the deficiency of climate model in simulating tropical cyclone climate, make it difficult to explain definitely the relation between global warming and tropical cyclone climate at current stage.
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